Etwas spät die Sonntagspresse

verfasst von nasdaq, 26.08.2002, 16:48

-->Eine ausführliche Meldungsübersicht der Sonntagspresse ins. NY-Times. Da diese in Vergangenheit immer wieder den Trend der kommenden Woche bestimmen konnte.

Sonntagspresse

- Ciena Networks (CIEN) 4,16 US$ MK: 1570 Mio. US$:
Trotz der Übernahme von ONI Systems konnte konne keine Baby Bell als Kunde gewonnen werden. Bei einem break even Umsatzpunkt von 75 Mio. US$ p.Q. konnte CIEN gerade 50 Mio. erreichen. (Grund sind gestiegene F&E Aufwendugen und ein sehr langsamer Personalabbau) Der operative Gewinn liegt bei einem Verlust in gleicher Höhe des Umsatzes. Inkl. Abschreibungen für Lagebestand und Restrukturierungskosten lag der Verlust bei 160 Mio. US$ bei 50 Mio. Umsatz.
Der Bilanzwert liegt zur Zeit bei: 1360 Mio. bzw. 3,55 je Aktie und fällt pro Quartal um mind. 0,14 US$.
Um entsprechende Risiken abzubilden sollte die Aktie bei einem potentiellen Business Value von 100-200 Mio. US$ + Bilanzwert = 3,8-4,08 pro Aktie geahandelt werden. Maximales Potential 2003 = 3,3 US$ (-20%) bzw. tiefer.

Substanzwerte (lt. Actienbörse):
Hochtief, Bilfinger, Linde, Sun Microsystems, AT&T, Vivendi (allerdings mit Schuldenproblemen), Commerzbank (WCM-Risiko), Strabag (operatives Risiko)

Ertragswerte:
IBM, Caterpillar, HP-Compaq, Ahold, Henkel

Strategiewerte:
Buderus (51 % liegen bei Großinvestoren), Klöckner Werke und IVG (WCM Risiko), Beiersdorf (steht zum Verkauf). Alle großen Bank- und Versicherungswerte insb. AXA, Allianz, CSG usw.

NY-Times on Dell
Dell is, indeed, rolling. In the last two weeks, it reported improved profits and solid gains in the PC business and declared its intention to enter three new markets by the end of the year: printers, hand-held devices and unbranded, or white-box, PC's. And its campaign to move up the computing food chain into corporate data centers appears to be gaining traction.

Eigene Anmerkungen:

Druckergeschäft: Allianz mit Lexmark u.o. Epson, Margen sind hoch aber HPQ ist ein schwerer Wettbewerber (Chancen: Positiv)

White Boxes: Neutral, kann zur Auslastung von Überkapazitäten beitragen Gewinnpotential gering.

Business Segment: Positiv Allerdings wird der Aufbau des Servicegeschäfts und der Entwicklungsabteilung große Probleme bereiten, Sell-direct funktioniert im Server Bereich nicht, allerdings sind die potentiellen Kosteneinsparungen mit Dell Linux gegenüber IBM enorm. By contrast, he said, much of the R & D spending by Dell's rivals is to develop their home-grown technologies and lock customers into their proprietary products."I think the idea that our competitors have an advantage because they spend more on R & D is complete nonsense," Mr. Dell said.
Sun Microsystems bleibt Nr.1 und wird im Linux Bereich ein schwerer Gegner. Eventuell wäre eine Übernahme von Sun Microsystems oder EMC wäre evtl. sinnvoll aber würde sich nicht mit der bisherigen Strategie von Dell decken, da das Integrationsrisiko zu groß wäre und Sun noch zuviele Mitarbeiter beschäftigt.

NY-Times
Hospitalkosten steigen wg. ausufernder Kunstfehlerprozesse und Versicherungskostenanstieg (ruinöser Wettbewerb unter den Versicherern) i.H.v. bis zu 100%. Krankenhäuser fangen an kritische und teure Spezialabteilungen zu schließen (Neurochirurgie, Trauma-Behandlungen).
The costs have become truly staggering. Premiums for doctors have doubled and tripled, in some cases, rising to as high as $200,000 a year for obstetricians in Fort Lauderdale and Miami. But even those prices begin to look mild compared with gargantuan insurance bills for hospitals.

Mr. Bush and the A.M.A. are campaigning for a federal law that would limit claims for pain and suffering to $250,000 in each malpractice case. In the 1970's, California set a ceiling of $250,000 for jury awards for pain and suffering, and malpractice insurance prices have not soared there.

Darüber hinaus gibt es im politischen Teil eine kontroverse Debatte über die Kostenübernahme von Krankenhausrechnungen illegaler Einwanderer in die USA die Krankenhäuser auch für reguläre Untersuchungen und Behandlungen (Erkältung) nutzen, da diese verpflichtet sind die Kosten zu übernehmen.

According to the Immigration and Naturalization Service, the number of illegal immigrants in the United States increased to as many as eight million in 2000, the last year for which figures are available, from five million in 1996. By some estimates, hospitals are collectively writing off as much as $2 billion a year in unpaid medical bills to treat the illegal immigrants, who, unlike American citizens and permanent residents, are ineligible for Medicaid.

NYTIMES Texas Pacific kauft Anteil an US Airways
Actienbörse: Geht die nächste Airline Pleite (United) ist der Turnaround perfekt!!!
And days before US Airways announced its plans to file for bankruptcy two weeks ago — but after it had negotiated about $550 million in concessions with its unions — Texas Pacific, based in Fort Worth and San Francisco, agreed to kick in $100 million as part of a $500 million loan to keep the company operating during bankruptcy. It also agreed to buy $200 million of stock, or 38 percent of the company, and take 5 of 13 seats on the board if US Airways emerges from bankruptcy — unless another investor surfaces with a better offer.
Texas Pacific, which manages $8 billion, thrives by buying businesses no one else wants. Mr. Coulter and Mr. Bonderman made their names during the recession of the early 1990's with investments in Continental and America West. The firm's hallmark is to take an active hand in shaping companies, sometimes ousting poor managers and tapping its extensive network of contacts for talented replacements.
Bspw.: Bankgesellschaft Berlin, MEMC, Burger King, Continental Airlines usw.

Mr. Bonderman made his reputation in the 1980's as the chief investment officer for Robert Bass, the Texas oilman. Mr. Bonderman enriched Mr. Bass a second time by making early bets in industries like cable television and taking stakes in troubled companies like American Savings & Loan, which had been seized by the government. Over nearly a decade, Mr. Bonderman's picks earned an average annual return of 63 percent for Mr. Bass.

In 1993, Mr. Bonderman struck out on his own with Mr. Coulter, a former Lehman Brothers banker who had also worked for Mr. Bass. They teamed up later that year with Mr. Price, a veteran of GE Capital Capital and Bain & Company, a consulting firm, to form Texas Pacific.

It revived Oxford Health Plans, the health maintenance organization that nearly collapsed in the mid-1990's, almost doubling its money after bringing in new managers and upgrading computer systems. In 1996, it made a $280 million investment in Ducati Motor, the Italian motorcycle maker, whose profits have since more than quadrupled.

NYTIMES Ford und GM mit neuen Finanzvorständen:

Ford und GM haben seit wenigen Monaten neue CFO’s, die das Unternehmen stärker führen als der CEO. Gilmore bei Ford und Devine bei GM (Beide >20 jährige Ford Veteranen)

Now, both face urgent fiscal challenges. Despite G.M.'s modest recovery in market share and its profitability from strong sales of its trucks, Mr. Devine is wrestling with G.M.'s unfunded future pension liability, which has mushroomed to nearly $10 billion. The same issue dogs Mr. Gilmour, who also faces the even bigger hurdle of accelerating cost cuts and streamlining to revive Ford's profitability. Last quarter, Ford earned a paltry $38 on each car and truck sold in North America, versus $804 at G.M., according to Mr. Girsky's calculations.

Lately, the focus is on G.M.'s pension fund, which totaled $80 billion two years ago but has dropped to $67 billion. Although the company's current pension payouts are not exceeding pension fund earnings, the market's volatility has destroyed G.M.'s assumption that it would earn a net return of 10 percent a year on the fund assets. Mr. Devine said G.M. was ready to transfer cash to fund some of the future liability at year-end, but he contends that cannot be done all at once without endangering G.M.'s product spending. Yet until the shortfall for future liability is funded, he acknowledged, the issue will not go away.

NY-TIMES gibt Nachhilfe in Ã-konomie.
Kosteneinsparungen führen zu einer Verlangsamung des Konsums. Bisher wurde der Aufschwung von steigenden Investitions-Konsum- und Staatsausgaben getragen nachdem der Konsum den Boden fand. Im Moment sucht der private Konsum aber eher einen Hochpunkt. Die Konsumenten bleiben stark und nutzen dabei vornehmlich die Steuersenkungen, Zinsentlastungen und vor allem Hypothekenerhöhungen ihres im Wert steigenden Hauses (Anm. Preise für Häuser in Washington DC +20%, San Diego +30% deutet eher auf eine letzte Übertreibung hin als auf den Beginn eines nachhaltigen Aufschwungs)

"If everyone tries to cut costs and save more, no one saves more," he said."If you and everyone else cut costs, costs do indeed go down, but revenue also goes down, so profits eventually go down, too. Collectively, we can't cut our way to prosperity."

In the current cycle, however, consumption — particularly for cars, housing and appliances — never tapered off from very high levels during the nine- month recession that started in January of last year. It has still not tapered off, but it is not rising, either, and that is a problem. Recovery requires increased consumption and business investment to make the economy grow. The danger today is that demand will decline instead, and recession will return — or there will be prolonged stagnation. Unfortunately, Mr. Dudley's"corporate paradox of thrift" is pushing hard in that direction.

NYTimes zur US Ãœberproduktion von Agrarerzeugniussen
"It's fairly straightforward," said Pranab Bardhan, professor of economics at the University of California at Berkeley."The subsidies encourage overproduction, which depresses prices and leads to a kind of dumping of low-priced grain on the world market. The only people who will be hurt from these subsidies, who will really go hungry, are the poorest people in the developing countries."

In May, President Bush signed the $190 billion 10-year farm bill that will continue to give the nation's biggest farmers $19 billion in subsidies, perpetuating a Depression-era program of direct financial aid to encourage production of grain and cotton. Some critics call that a welfare system, and some of the most important developing nations with big agricultural exports — Brazil, Thailand and South Africa — spoke up loudly, charging the Bush administration with hypocrisy.
These countries had hoped that Mr. Bush, an avowed free-trader, would reduce the American farm subsidies and shame the European nations to follow his lead and reduce theirs as well.

The European Union gives its farmers $60 billion in annual subsidies, which cause similar problems for developing countries. Japan subsidizes its rice growers, too, but with fewer repercussions on the world market.

The new farm law is seen as a betrayal of those promises and of these developing countries' attempts to beef up their own agriculture and feed their people. The United States, Europe and Japan spend $1 billion a day to support their farmers or about six times the aid payments they send to the developing world, which is desperate for help to build up its agriculture.

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• Etwas spät die Sonntagspresse - nasdaq, 26.08.2002, 16:48