SPX

verfasst von Jacques, 27.08.2002, 23:13

-->aus nahestehender Feder:


(Price reference last newsletter 853)

We are basically inline our last Monthly Technical Newsletter as we expected an upside retracement with potential to climb as high as 975.
The crucial question of today is whether this rally is only a countertrend reaction of the first leg of a big recovery. We remind you that the July low near 775 was set right near the global 50% Fibonacci retracement and that this trough occurred in a technical environment where the likelihood of a major reversal was quite pronounced (see discussions in former updates). Further more we see that the long-term oscillator in monthly “chart 2, panel 2” is still in very oversold territory. Similar readings were usually found in the neighbourhood of major lows. All this supports the idea that a significant recovery is underway.
However, when we come back on daily “chart 1” we see that moving averages are mainly falling. Further more significant positive divergences near the low are lacking (not illustrated herein). Now we would like to draw you attention to the similarity in countertrend reactions. The A-B and C-D leg are very similar in amplitude. In “downtrend defining” lower low, lower high sequences this can be considered common market behaviour and consequently it is not unlikely that the current recovery could fit again to this similarity scheme. With the recent top near 965 the similarity’s minimum requirement is fulfilled although an ideal target is located near 1’010 only. Latter level is unlikely to be achievable in the first half of September. The oscillator in “chart 1, panel 2” looks very overbought and the descending open interest line see “chart 1, panel 3” is all but a supportive indication.

We conclude, as already explained in our last update, that the area of 975 will probably act as strong resistance and that a large downside retracement could unfold in September. For example a fall back towards 850 would not surprise us (solid interim supports are near 910 and 890). On the other hand we do not really expect a resumption of the downtrend out of this situation. We consider it as more likely that a large trading range with a slight upside bias will unfold over the coming few weeks. Under these circumstances a retracement towards 850 offers an appealing buying opportunity. We will observe the pattern unfolding and strive to keep you updated accordingly.

Thread gesperrt

 

gesamter Thread:

• SPX - Jacques, 27.08.2002, 23:13
  • SPX: Wochenanalyse für den 28. August 2002 - bleschek, 28.08.2002, 08:05
    • WOW - Hut ab vor Dir.... Da steckt wirklich viel Arbeit dahinter.... nm - Wolfgang, 28.08.2002, 08:15
    • respekt-respekt...!!! (owT) - blindfisch, 28.08.2002, 09:48
      • Re: respekt-respekt...!!! (owT)dto - foreveryoung, 28.08.2002, 10:07
  • Ich bitte um die Quellenangabe. Danke (owT) - bleschek, 28.08.2002, 08:08
    • Re: Ich bitte um die Quellenangabe - - Jacques, 28.08.2002, 17:47