Negativer Artikel zu den Fundamentals für Gold...

verfasst von spieler, 30.08.2002, 10:50

-->Wenn ich das richtig übersetzt habe, dann ist dieser Bericht extrem negativ für Gold gestimmt...

http://www.technicalindicators.com/gold.htm


UPDATED AS OF THE U.S. CLOSE ON THURSDAY, AUGUST 29)
(UPDATED NIGHTLY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

TECHNICAL FORECAST: Indicators remain mostly between neutral and negative.

Summary: The gold price rose today, the December contract closing at $314.40 from $310.90 yesterday. Although the price rose today, it traded mostly in the same range as the past 2 days, but closing today at the upper part of the range. Click for December Gold Daily Chart.

The short term indicators remain mostly neutral. The price chart remains in a clear downtrend. There is no indication of any determined buying.

The most telling indicators is the open interest* which is still in the same range as the past month, declining about 3,000 to 147,804 open contracts. If there were significant changes it would most likely show up in the open interest and so far there is have been noticeable change in that. In the first part of this year, the open interest rose with the price as new speculative buying came in. So far we see no sign of that.

We pointed out the increasing short position in the gold market as the price was weakening since June, so we may be subject to some limited spurts of short covering.

We still see no change in the fundamentals for gold. The slowing economies throughout the world have not changed - retail sales (jewelry sales especially) and consumer confidence remain at low levels. It is not as though potential investors have lots of money with which to buy gold - probably the opposite is true.

Although small speculators still hold a relatively large position, speculators are not buying as they were up until May of this year. Small speculators still hold an unusually large position, 42,365 contracts, 28% of all open positions (as of August 20). The large position presently held by small speculators appears to be held over from the first part of the year when the price was rising - it does not appear to be new buying. We have seen very little new buying in the past 2 months. At the same time, the short position, particularly that of large speculators is gradually increasing (and may have contributed to the rise of the past 2 days).

Thus the gold is not only facing a lack of speculative buying and potential selling by long speculators, it is beginning to see more selling by short speculators, a negative situation (see below).

The gold price has been in a clear downtrend channel since the beginning of June, each rally and each decline lower than the previous one, forming a clear declining pattern (and still remains so in spite of the rise of the past 2 days). It appears that most of those gold speculators who are going to buy gold have already bought, and while many of them have liquidated in recent weeks, there are still a significant number of them who have not yet liquidated, small speculators especially (as opposed to funds and large speculators).

Also tending to confirm the present negative outlook is the recent weakness in the other precious metals, SILVER especially. This is not a decline just limited to gold - it appears to be the reaction to the fundamentally unwarranted rise in some of the other markets earlier this year - there is similar weakness in practically all the markets which reacted to a weaker U.S. Dollar earlier this year. The Euro, The Yen and other currencies are now giving back much of their recent gains as the U.S. Dollar stabilized in the past few weeks.

It would be helpful to realize what just happened in the past few months to get some insight into the future potential for the gold price.

During the first part of this year when the gold price came up from about $275 to about $325, the rise got lots of publicity and attracted near record numbers of long speculators. These speculators, mostly on the New York Exchange, were buying gold future contracts while demand for physical gold was actually declining (see below).

It was especially interesting to note that the gold industry, the place with the most inside knowledge, was doing the opposite, selling into the New York market at near record levels. Media coverage was given to those few mining companies who decided not to hedge in the future markets, while little or no coverage was given to the fact that the industry was selling into the rally at record levels, making the diminished hedging insignificant and irrelevant, the media thus creating the opposite impression of what was actually happening.

What should one expect if demand for physical gold is down (while supply is more than plentiful), speculators on the exchange are buying like mad while the industry, rather than hold out for higher prices, was selling to them at near record numbers???

Those not familiar with commodity trading and the many factors and fluctuations that most commodity markets are subject to may not fully understand the fact that many markets can move up or down, not for any good reason, but because that's what trading is all about.

Margin on a gold contract is less than 5% - a move of $5 or $6 will produce margin calls which in turn will cause buying or selling. This factor alone, the need for more margin, is probably the single most influencing factor in markets which have a lot of speculators (aside from any significant change in fundamentals).

Thus we have a potentially precarious situation, large speculators beginning to short the market while small speculators, much more vulnerable to margin calls, holding an unusually large number of contracts, 42,365 (as of August 20).

The latest Commitment of Traders report (see below) confirms the trend of the past few weeks - speculative buying has decreased while short sellers are beginning to increase their positions. Because we are seeing more interest by short sellers we can expect more volatility as trading resumes more normally, the surge of speculative buyers over for now. (We recently pointed out the possibility for some short covering by those shorts who entered the market in the past few weeks.)

Although we could see further improvement in the gold price it is difficult to see how the gold price can sustain any significant advance while we are going through recessionary times as we are now. After all, people need money to buy gold and there is no doubt that there is less money around now with which to buy it. The biggest use for gold is in jewelry, but jewelry sales are down in most parts of the world including here in the U.S.

Demand for gold for investment purposes is not likely to increase significantly either. Many people have lost large amounts of investment money in the past 2 years and it will be hard to attract people to the gold market because the price has hardly made any headway for years. The stock market did not attract many investors until after the stock averages made significant advances - it is usually that way with most markets. Few people will invest in a market that hasn't shown its ability to make and hold significant gains.

The rise of earlier this year is not an uncommon occurrence in the gold market which tends to attract a lot of speculators. This has happened before, most recently in the fall of 1999, when speculators on the New York exchange were attracted to the gold (and silver) for one reason or another, although there was very little change in buying patterns in the physical gold market. Once all the potential buyers are in, there is no one left to buy, only to sell.

Obviously the gold rush is over on the New York exchange - now the issue is how far the price will fall as long speculators sell and new short sellers come into the market. At around 20% of open positions, the short sellers had been laying low, but have been increasing their positions in the past few weeks, now holding 25% of open positions (as of August 20).

It seems quite reasonable to expect the gold to at least fall back to the support level it established around $260, if not lower.

Some of the recent rise in the gold price has been attributed to reports that the industry will cut back on their hedging activities by not selling into the futures market. Yet the number of contracts hedged by the industry in the past 2 months was near the highest in years. At the beginning of this year they were hedged only about 67,000 contracts. In May they reached a multi year record of over 131,000 contracts but have gradually reduced their position as the price fell, now holding over 97,000 contracts as of the latest report (August 20), still relatively high. We are hearing one thing in the media and various gold reports, while the Commitment of Traders report continues to contradict some of these reports.

Some of the recent rise has also been attributed to weakness in the U.S. Dollar. In spite of its recent setback, the dollar is still at relatively high levels, still trading at much higher levels than it has during the past 20 years. Click for a broader look at the U.S. Dollar U.S. Dollar.

To put the recent rise in context of what the gold has been doing, click here for a look at the10 year monthly chart: Gold Price Chart or a 35 year chart at: Gold -Eagle.com. As the charts show, the price remains in the lower part of its range, with no indication yet of any sustained breakout from its relatively low levels.

We can only wonder at how many investors can be encouraged to buy gold on which hardly anyone has made money in the past 20 years by investing in gold (except for fast in and out trades). Investors tend to be attracted to a rising market, as was the case in 1979-1980, not a market which has yet to show a significant and sustained rise.

Some physical gold fundamentals:

There has been no rush to buy gold in the physical gold market. Although investment demand had a minor rise in the 1st quarter of this year (latest figures available) it was overwhelmed by the decrease in demand for jewelry (the largest use for gold) and for other uses, while supply remains at such high levels that 15 European countries had to agree to withhold their surplus gold from the market, selling it in smaller quantities and over a longer of period of time in order not to flood the market.

Further, the minor increase in investment demand came mostly from Japan in a one time brief spurt in demand as a result of the change in Japanese banking rules limiting the amount of insurance on bank accounts (the Japanese equivalent of the U.S. FDIC). Since then, demand in Japan has returned to normal, the latest figures now showing little or no change from the previous year.

The World Gold Council estimated that net global gold demand declined by 10% in the first quarter of this year to 749.5 metric tons (an estimated decrease of over 80 tons). Jewelry demand fell 15% to 623.9 tons although investment demand was 36% higher at 125.6 tons. (2nd quarter figures are due out on September 17.) Japan trade figures for April show a slowing in gold imports to 5.56 tonnes (173,000) from the strong March imports of 12.98 tonnes (403,700 ounces)

There was a 40% drop in gold demand in India, the world's largest gold market, attributed in part to the sharp increase in the price of gold. These factors, along with an slower economic conditions are likely to keep the gold price from sustaining a significant rise.

There is no evidence of any significant change in buying trends. We would have expected that the large rise which so many long speculators are hoping for would have been preceded by some evidence of public interest in buying gold or gold coins as an investment. That was what we saw for several years preceding the big gold boom in 1979-1980. So far, not much change in the public interest in holding physical gold.

Of course there are some favorable factors in the gold market, but few and far between. There was some hope that Japanese investment buying would increase, but after a one month spurt spurred by changes in banking insurance rules, Japanese demand has now returned to normal levels (and in any case, was a drop in the bucket). Further, some mines had (relatively minor) decreases in production. However the favorable factors are more than offset by the unfavorable factors.

In spite of some decreases in gold production last year in the U.S., Australia and South Africa, overall world production last year was still higher by about 20 tons, attributable at least in part to a 31% increase at one of the world's largest gold mines in Indonesia, as well as increased supplies in Russia, China and other countries. There is also the issue of new discoveries as well which will add supply to the market.

On the demand side, gold fabrication demand for the past year was at the lowest level in 5 years, attributed mostly to the slowdown in world economic growth. Jewelry fabrication (which represents about 2/3rds of gold use in the U.S.) fell 5% last year due to weak consumption not only here in the U.S. but in many East Asian markets and the Middle East. Industrial fabrication (mostly electronics) fell 14%.

There is some concern in the market when the"Washington Agreement" runs out in September, 2004. What is going to happen when the agreement, in which 15 European countries agreed to limit their sales to only 400 tons a year, expires?

The amount of known surplus gold held by central banks and institutions throughout the world is in excess of 32,000 metric tons, enough to supply world gold demand for almost a decade. The amount held by signatories to the"Washington Agreement" alone, countries which are planning to sell much of their gold, is over 15,000 tons.

This further points out the excess supply of gold on the market. In an effort to maintain the value of their gold reserves, various European countries agreed to withhold gold from the market so as not to drive the price down. The fact the gold market needs this artificial support rather than rely on free market supply and demand factors should say something about the future of the gold price. What would have happened to the price if these countries just sold their gold when they wanted to instead of agreeing to withhold it from the market?

An investment in gold now would not only bear the risk of what happens when the agreement expires, but especially hurtful to the gold price is that it is unlikely many investors will come in knowing such a surplus is overhanging the market.

There doesn't seem any reason that anyone can worry about a shortage of gold now or in the foreseeable future.

Industry Hedging:

There has been a lot of talk about some mining companies planning not to hedge as much as they have in the past. Of course there have always been some companies who don't hedge believing in the long run that prices will average out. However, if mining companies have cutback on their hedges, it is contradicted by the present position of industry hedgers.

The futures market exists for the benefit of miners to take advantage of high prices when they occur in the futures market. A miner can lock in a good profit in the futures market when prices are right.

If a mining company passes up the opportunity to lock up a good profit, he will then be speculating instead. Sometimes he will be right and other times he will be wrong. The subject of hedging has been discussed for centuries and there are many different attitudes toward it. However, most businessmen agree that if you can lock up a profit rather than speculate, you should do so.

Those miners who decide to speculate rather than hedge at a profit put their companies at risk if the price goes the wrong way. For an ongoing business not to hedge in a good profit, would be considered irresponsible or just plain greedy by some. Solid, long lasting companies are usually not based on speculation.

So far, in spite of reports of hedging cutbacks, we are unable to see hardly any change in the high levels at which the gold industry has recently hedged.

Further, the failure to hedge does not remove any physical gold from the market. The gold still comes to market so it has no affect on the physical market. So far it seems the only affect it has is to encourage some speculators to think it might give the gold price a boost.

As always, when the price rises, bullish sentiment does as well. However, the willingness of the industry to hedge at the relatively high numbers at which they are hedged now is certainly suggesting the industry is not as bullish as it might be. Once a gold producer has hedged he has locked in the price at which he can sell it, leaving no room on the upside.

This is not what we would expect to see if the physical gold market was improving. The industry attitude toward the present strength in the gold market, judging from action (in the futures market) rather than words, seems to be at the minimum, cautious (if not outright bearish) because the industry has sold so many contracts.


Commitment of Traders Reports and Open Interest Figures*:

The open interest is 147,804 contracts, still a long way from the peak of close to 200,000 in May. (The average range of the past decade was mostly between 175,000 to 205,000 contracts.)

The latest Commitment of Traders Report (issued as of August 20) shows the ratio of speculators is 47% LONG to 25% SHORT (versus 46% LONG to 26% SHORT the previous week), showing that speculators continue to have a large long position while the short speculative position, although still at relatively low levels, is beginning to grow.

The report shows the position of industry insiders is more short than long, (43% LONG to 65% SHORT)..

Long speculators control 47% of the gold market, small speculators alone holding over 42,000 contracts (as of August 20), less than recent weeks but still a relatively large number. Small speculators do not usually have the holding power of long speculators, so any significant weakness is likely to force many of them to liquidate by selling into the market.

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What influences the gold price?:

A constant issue in the gold market is what influences the price. Most people logically believe the supply and demand figures in the physical gold market will determine the price.

However, the futures market in New York is the single largest place in the world where more gold contracts are traded than any other. The price at which the physical gold changes hands, in almost all cases, depends on the price at the New York exchange. Practically all gold bullion and gold coin dealers will base the price of their transactions on this price.

Therefore, the supply and demand at the NY exchange is probably the single most important factor (at least in the short term) in determining the outlook for the gold price. We can see large changes in the supply or demand in the physical market, but if the price does not first change at the exchange it is not likely to change the price of the physical gold.

Of course, in the longer term, supply and demand in the physical market will cause the futures market to change accordingly, but significant and sustained changes in the physical gold market are few and far between.

The supply and demand factors affecting the physical gold have been pretty much established It would take a change of enormous proportions to reverse the long term downtrend in which the gold has been trading, such as the crisis in 1980 when inflation was soaring, the U.S. Dollar was sinking fast and the prime rate reached 21%.

So far we have not seen any sign of that type of crisis. Inflation is relatively low (certainly compared to the 1970's when gold and silver soared in price) and the U.S. Dollar, although weak in the first part of this year, is not far from its highest levels in almost 2 decades. There is no sign of any rush to buy gold and in fact, coin dealers who sell investment type gold coins to the public report no significant change in that business.

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No reason to expect further rise is the gold price:

Interestingly enough we receive more feedback about our Gold comments than all others combined. There are lots of people who believe the gold price will rise even though it's gains up to now have been relatively minor, even after the threat of international hostilities.

It has become popular belief that gold will rise in time of uncertainty - some remember 1980 when gold rose as high as $850, but are inclined to overlook that is was $150 just a few years before that short lived rise in the price. The dollar was extremely weak then and oil prices were soaring.

Some people feel that the gold price will stay where it is, maybe between $250 and $300. However, everything is relative. In the 1970's gold traded mostly between $100 and $150. but as inflation took hold in the late 1970's, gold shot up in price, along with oil, interest rates, foodstuffs, and practically all major commodities.

Now the reverse is true - inflation is not a problem, we are seeing deflation instead in many prices. Interest rates are at 1960's levels, many commodity prices are at 1960's and 1970's levels and the U.S. Dollar is near the strongest level since the mid 1980's. Why could not the gold also return to 1970's prices, especially since there is so much of it and demand is very ordinary at best?

We are puzzled by the optimism of many gold bulls. Why, during a slow economic period as we are in now, would people expect the price to rise? Other commodity prices are at very low levels, many at 1970's levels. In spite of minor setback recently, the dollar remains strong, still at levels not seen since the mid 1980's. Click here for a broader long term look at the U.S. Dollar.

What little hope there is for the gold price seems to be pinned on an improving economy which would create more demand, both industrial and consumer, and for a continued decline in the value of the U.S. Dollar. So far however, there are no indications of an improving economy which might stimulate demand - in fact the opposite is true. The economy remains very slow and signs of improvement are rare, if any.

More eyes are on these conditions than the petty changes in supply and demand which are part of the every day gold market. We know the fundamentals are not good in the gold market - even industry professionals are telling us that by having the big short hedge position they have.

Under these conditions it is quite conceivable, if not outright probable, that gold could fall to $200 an ounce or below.

After all, potential buyers want a winner and gold has been in a decline for years. The big winner now, attracting big bucks, is the U.S. Dollar which now is at levels not seen for almost 2 decades. Why would anyone want to invest in gold with such a bad track record when the U.S. Dollar is continuing to climb and is a far more attractive investment.

To get a better view of the gold market, click on the Weekly gold chart or the Monthly gold chart.

Especially noticeable on these charts is that it is not uncommon for gold to pop occasionally only to come right back down and now threatening to break recent low prices.

In September 1999, after a long period of decline we had a rally in the gold price. However, the situation was very different then - the open interest was over 200,000 contracts and the speculative short interest was one of the biggest positions. Now the open interest is low and we have seen the speculative short interest decline and speculative long interest rise.

The gold market remains flooded with physical supply now and for the foreseeable future. Miners have been increasing production, national banks and other institutions are selling many tons of gold without sufficient demand. There has been a genuine rush to market. The gold price has not been able to sustain any rally for well over a year - each rally has sellers waiting to meet any rise in the price.

How low can the price go? Easily to between $150 and $200, an area where it traded for about 5 years in the 1970's and closer to the real cost of production. It was reported that the average cost of production of an ounce of gold in the year 2001 was about $176, far below its present price.

It would be uncharacteristic of the gold market to ignore the persistent decline into price areas it hasn't seen for over 22 years, the huge physical supply overhanging the market and with insufficient demand (and the potential for even less as economic conditions slow down).

With slower economic conditions there is less demand. Jewelry demand, the biggest single source of demand in the U.S., can be expected to continue to decline Investment demand is also down - not many people are interested in"investments" lately, particularly one that is declining in price.

Gold is in the midst of a severe and historical decline. Click to see the Gold Price - Monthly Chart. The price has come down sharply and appears on the verge of making multi-year lows.

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gesamter Thread:

• Negativer Artikel zu den Fundamentals für Gold... - spieler, 30.08.2002, 10:50
  • Re: Gott segne die ahnungslosen Supply and Demand Analytiker - kingsolomon, 30.08.2002, 11:23
    • Kannst Du das näher erläutern? Einiges erinnert mich an dottores Argumente! - spieler, 30.08.2002, 11:26
      • Letzten Endes geht es um die (Massen)Psychologie - Nachfrager, 30.08.2002, 12:30
        • Re: Letzten Endes geht es um die (Massen)Psychologie - blindfisch, 31.08.2002, 11:37
          • Re: Ist doch klar - Nachfrager, 31.08.2002, 14:52
      • Re: Kannst Du das näher erläutern? Einiges erinnert mich an dottores Argumente! - Diogenes, 30.08.2002, 16:57
  • Re: 'No reason to expect further rise in the gold price' - JLL, 30.08.2002, 12:07
    • Re: 'No reason to expect further rise in the gold price' - Spirit of JuergenG, 30.08.2002, 12:39