2) Thats the whole story about gold- the rest is noise. Auch bitte lesen:

verfasst von drooy, 30.08.2002, 11:36

-->The Final Shoe is falling
SOON!


We have previously outlined to you what makes the gold market happen in fundamental terms. For gold to establish a trend there need be no other stimulus these than fundamental issues. However for the sake of review we will briefly review.

1/ The dynamic condition of the US Dollar.
2/ The condition of the Current Account in dynamic, not static terms.
3/ The attractiveness (or not) of equities as a storehouse of value in the minds of international investors.
4/ The attractiveness (or not) of the US Federal Debt market, 10-year bonds and 30 year bonds, as a storehouse of value in terms of international investors.
5/ The condition of the general commodity market.

That is the entire gold story. All the rest is noise. It may be important noise but other criteria remains only noise. The trend is made by the fundamental five criteria above. The noise can excite or dull the gold trend but it does not make the gold trend. International political tension is a noise item. The market fight between great position holders is a noise item. If you understand the five criteria of trend then you might not need us. We wish to impart knowledge and our goal would be realized when you do not need us. We have a combined 90 years of experience in gold. It is yours for the reading. Please take it and take it to the financial engineers of the gold producers you are invested in. Please save them from themselves thereby saving yourself and gold as a monetary vehicle as well.

1/ The dollar has fallen to a degree that has taken the world by surprise. It has been hammered. In today's market world of instant price gratification, the price downside is like the person who walks into an elevator only to find no elevator waiting and falls down the dark empty shaft. The dollar has free fallen down the elevator shaft.

2/ The Current Account has dropped into a hemorrhaging deficit faster and further than anyone suspected. It was pooh-poohed in February of 2002 by none other than the US Secretary of the Treasury. The Current Account Balance is a broad measure of US trade and capital flows. It blossomed in deficit in the first quarter of 2002 by 112.5 billion, further building up the mountain of US dollars held by non-US entities, both public and private. Now we step into the theory of up and down spirals. As more dollars flow into international hands in an environment of (number 3 in the gold equation) WEAK EQUITY MARKETS, more dollars flow out of equities internationally into the mountain being created by the Current Account Deficit, and around and around we go. As the mountain of external US dollars gets bigger and bigger and the dollar goes lower and lower the result is that equity market rallies in search of a fundamental bottom are ineffectual at establishing that final market low. That is a down spiral of #1, #2 and #3 of the gold equation.

All is somewhat well as long as WHAT? All is well as long as #4 of the gold equation does not come into play. #4 is the attractiveness of the medium to long term US bond market. We"know" that from a cyclical standpoint, both long term and short-term highs in this market are prone to pass by November of 2002. So here is the answer to WHEN DOES THE LAST SHOE FALL on the complacent hedger? November of 2002 is a time that portends the greatest probability that the grime reaper of reality will knock on the door of the complacent hedger and hold out his begging bowl for all your cash please. Why? Well, that mountain of dollars collecting in the world outside of the financial centers of the US as described in the spiral of #1, #2 & #3 above, finds its last bastion of a storehouse of value, the US bond market, is becoming a loser, and then the dollar would be hammered even harder and faster than what has happened already. Gold would, under that scenario, pass up through $354 like a hot knife through butter. Under this scenario, we doubt, anyone would even see $354 go up in flames, as it would happen so fast. Then gold will be in the $380-400 range and the share prices of the major gold producers still complacent in hedging would be falling.

Therefore the answer to your question of when the shoe kicks the derriere of the complacent gold producer hedger is answered as potentially and very possibly November of 2002.

You ask about the general commodity market's contribution? Every ingredient is like a thermometer reading with five indicators of gold's fundamental strength. Four ingredients can carry number five as neutral. That is the genesis of the prediction of $380-$400 today given in this dissertation as a result of gold fundamental #1 as distinctly with a pro-gold high reading, #2 with a distinctly high pro-gold reading, #3 distinctly high pro-gold reading, # 4 expected in November 2002 to support gold and the final #5 now having come from totally negative to negative/neutral which is not a depreciating item to the gold equation. Number five, the commodity market, will be the ingredient that determines if or not gold moves above $380-$400. We will deal with that in the final quarter of 2002. #1, #2 and #3 took us above the $305 barrier and initiated the mechanism of how and whereby nominal value of $280,000,000,000 of gold derivatives are becoming real value in the marketplace as a product of risk control program buying by gold banks. This has presented gold with the challenge to $354 that is where we stand now.

Until September-October, it is our opinion, that correct action for investors in the gold market place is to buy every reaction, selling 50% of your position into strength & rebuy again on weakness, etc, not fearing the talking heads of mega-nonsense about the transient nature of the gold rally that is being paraded on the financial TV stations owned by Wall Street equity interests in the first place. After October, hold for further opinions from command central at the Schultz/Sinclair golden war room headquarters.


HD Schultz can be reached at www.hsletter.com
James Sinclair at www.tanrange.com

Thread gesperrt

 

gesamter Thread:

• Nachtrag / Frage zum vorhergehenden Text: Nachfrage nach phys. Gold negativ? - spieler, 30.08.2002, 11:02
  • Re: Nachtrag / Frage zum vorhergehenden Text: Nachfrage nach phys. Gold negativ? - blindfisch, 30.08.2002, 11:17
    • Doch richtig? - Rene, 30.08.2002, 12:41
      • Re: Doch richtig? - blindfisch, 31.08.2002, 11:34
  • Nachfrage nach phys. Gold negativ? Klassische Desinformation. Bitte lesen: - drooy, 30.08.2002, 11:23
    • Also ich weiß nicht... - spieler, 30.08.2002, 13:40
  • 2) Thats the whole story about gold- the rest is noise. Auch bitte lesen: - drooy, 30.08.2002, 11:36
    • geht noch kürzer *g* - Diogenes, 30.08.2002, 16:49
  • Re: Viele Ãœberlegungen zu *supply and demand* führen in die Irre. - chiquito, 30.08.2002, 12:46