Presseschau für Sonntag, den 01.09.2002

verfasst von nasdaq, 01.09.2002, 12:18

-->Pressemeldungen Sonntag 01.09.02

Jim O’Neill Chefvolkswirt von Goldman Sachs

Plädiert für eine Neuauflage des Plaza Abkommens (1985 zur Abwertung des US-Dollars) Das Ungleichgewicht im Aussenhandel müsse beseitigt werden, um die Schuldenspirale der US-Verbraucher zu beseitigen. Europa müsse stimulierend wirken, die EZB die Zinsen senken und die ewige Diskussion über die 3 % Defizitgrenze aufhören. Wenn überhaupt wenn nicht jetzt müsse Deutschland ein Defizit im Staatshaushalt fahren?

Anmerkung: Interessante Ansätze aber eher Wunschdenken als Realität. Die EZB würde bei Stimulation der Wirtschaft durch den Staat defensiv bleiben und anders als in den USA oder GB nicht wachstumsfördernd agieren. Ein Plaza Abkommen würde momentan sogar an den USA scheitern, um nicht dem Risiko einer Kapitalflucht aus dem Dollarraum zuzulaufen, Wenngleich eine Abwertung des Dollars unter vorgehaltener Hand Ziel der FED ist.

Die Welt

Das Staatsdefizit in Deutschland wird auch ohne die Flutkatastrophe bei 3,7 % des BIP liegen.

FAZ
Die SPD Regierung schließt die Verwendung des Bundesbankgewinns nicht mehr aus, wenn die Schäden höher als bislang erwartet (wahrscheinlich werden sie es) ausfallen werden.

Anmerkung:
Die Flutkatastrophe verschleiert den Umstand, dass die Steuererhöhungen eher zum Ausgleich eines strukturellen Defizits im Sozialsystem beiträgt als ausschließlich zur Soforthilfe, die über eine Einmalabgabe hätte gelöst werden können. Die Forderungen, die immensen Infrastrukturschäden der Flutkatastrophe ohne antasten der Reserven (FDP) oder ohne Schuldenaufnahme (CDU) durchzuführen entbehrt jeder Grundlage. Um eine Pleitewelle im Osten zu vermeiden sind staatliche Ausfallgarantien notwendig, diese sollten innerhalb eines Monats beschlossen werden um wirksam zu sein, leider ist dies am Freitag noch nicht geschehen.

FAZ
Die Welthandelsorganisation WTO hat der EU am Freitag erlaubt, Strafzölle gegen amerikanische Exporte im Wert von jährlich rund 4 Milliarden Dollar zu verhängen.
Der Konflikt dreht sich um ein amerikanisches Gesetz, das es Unternehmen erlaubt, ihren Export über Tochterunternehmen ("Foreign sales corporations"/FSC) in Steueroasen wie Barbados oder den Jungferninseln abzuwickeln.
Daß die Kommission sich dennoch um einen zurückhaltenden Kurs bemüht, erklärt sich wohl nicht nur aus der Sorge, daß ein offener"Handelskrieg" zwischen den beiden wichtigsten Handelsmächten der Welt Gift für die Konjunktur wäre. Möglicherweise spielen dabei auch die Drohungen der Vereinigten Staaten eine Rolle, die Gemeinschaft ihrerseits mit WTO-Klagen zu überziehen, sollte sie tatsächlich Retorsionszölle verhängen. Vor allem die indirekte und direkte Förderung des Airbus sowie die Weigerung der EU, ihren Markt für gentechnisch veränderte Produkte zu öffnen, kämen dafür in Frage, hieß es auf amerikanischer Seite.

NYTIMES
What made the verdict even more striking was that it came from an institution that would not exist if the United States had not pushed relentlessly for its creation. Conservative critics charged that the panel had eroded American sovereignty and had stepped far outside its authority.
One of the main reasons President Bush abandoned his free-market principles on both farm subsidies and steel tariffs was that he needed votes in Congress to win approval of trade promotion authority, which allows the administration to negotiate trade deals and submit them to Congress for a simple yes or no vote.
"The United States has won many more cases than it has lost," said Mickey Kantor, who was the United States trade representative from 1993 to 1996 and negotiated the treaty that created the trade organization."We are much better off with a rules-based trading system, and the W.T.O. has frankly worked very well."
Anmerkung:
Das die USA weit mehr Importe aus Europa dulden tut der Klage der EU keinen Ablaß, hier wird letztendlich gesunder Menschenverstand gefragt sein. Als Druckmittel ist die Ankündigung von Strafzöllen sicherlich möglich, von deren Umsetzung sind wir aber hoffentlich weit entfernt. S.o. Dollar Diskussion...

NYTIMES
AT&T revival
AT&T certainly smells an opportunity. Kenneth E. Sichau, president of AT&T Business Sales, which analysts estimate will account for $26 billion, or 70 percent, of AT&T's total revenue this year, has added 600 sales representatives from troubled rivals and told his sales force to contact every customer of those carriers. He has also reassigned 200 AT&T employees to help customers in the complex technical job of switching to AT&T. David Willis, an analyst at the Meta Group in Stamford, Conn., agrees."AT&T should win 60 percent of the contracts that come up," he said of customers whose WorldCom contracts are expiring."Sprint should win 20 percent and the regional Bells perhaps another 20 percent."
AT&T’s businesses, which are forecast to generate $37 billion in revenue this year — are valued at less than $17 billion in the stock market, a bargain by some measures. AT&T's revenue, for example, is equal roughly to the company's enterprise value, the sum of its market capitalization and debt minus cash on hand. BellSouth, by comparison, has an enterprise value that is 2.4 times its revenue.
NYTIMES
Freilaufhühnerwachstum in den USA von der Firma Colorado Naturals
Yet the specialty category — including cage-free and organic eggs, as well as eggs fortified with supplements like omega-3 fatty acids, which have various health benefits — has grown fivefold since 1997. While that is still only about 5 percent of the market,"cage-free is the fastest-growing segment, and it's got the highest margins," said Donald D. Bell, an industry economist at the University of California at Riverside.
NYTIMES
Eventuell doch keine erneute Rezession? Der Anxious Index steigt aber befindet sich immer noch im neutralen Bereich.
As a group, Wall Street economists have failed to predict any of the three recessions in the last 20 years, according to records kept by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Hidden in the economists' forecasts, however, is a little-known economic indicator — call it the Anxious Index — that has been an impressively reliable warning light for recessions. The magic number for the Anxious Index seems to be 30. When forecasters think that there is a 30 percent chance that the economy will shrink in the coming quarter, a downturn usually follows.
(To take a look at the index, type in http://www.phil.frb.org/files/spf/prob.txt and check under"Mean Probability of Decline in Real G.D.P." The fifth column from the left covers the quarter after the survey.)
The index rose above 30 before every recession since 1968, the earliest date for which the Fed has data. In good times, the index hovers around 10. It is not perfect. It has sometimes remained above 30 even after recessions ended and raised a false alarm after the 1987 stock market crash. But the Anxious Index has a far superior record to economists' actual predictions.
So what does it say these days? After jumping to almost 32 early last year, shortly before the recession, it remained high until this year's second quarter, then fell to about 14. It moved to 18 in the most recent survey, reflecting the summer's weak spending and stock market declines but still not suggesting that a double-dip recession is likely.
NYTIMES
Arbeitnehmer schließen sich evtl. zunehmend Gewerkschaften an
Before, she said, joining a union had never crossed her mind, but now she says she wishes WorldCom were unionized. With a union, she says, she might have had a defined-benefit pension that, unlike her vaporized 401(k) plan, would have guaranteed her benefits even after the stock market plunged. Labor leaders say that if Enron or WorldCom were unionized, unions would have won better pensions and severance benefits for the workers and, through their prying, might have forced the companies to be more honest about their books.
It was labor's clout in Congress and collective bargaining that created the nation's system of worker protections, including the 40-hour week, pensions, health coverage and job safety rules. But unions are weak, representing less than 10 percent of the private-sector work force, down from 35 percent in the 1950's. Unions have been notably unsuccessful in wooing workers from New Economy industries, like software.
Anmerkung: Wirtschaftswachstum und Wohlstand waren und bleiben unabhängig von der Schlagkraft der Gewerkschaften. Eine bessere Kontrolle über die Pensionspläne sollte dennoch ein Ziel von Gewerkschaften und Regierung sein. Dem verbesserten Einzelfall auf der einen Seite stehen Belastungen auf der anderen gegenüber. Dass es eine Generation es schaffen könnte nur über Rücklagen soviel Kapital aufzubauen um im Alter von den Zinsen leben zu können ist schon aus dem einfachen Grunde ein Irrglaube, da die nachfolgende Generation dann theoretisch überhaupt nichts mehr arbeiten müsste...
NYTIMES
Junk Bond Investments
Junk-bond prices have fallen 6 percent this year through Thursday, according to the Merrill Lynch Master High Yield Index. That is their worst record since 1990, when the index fell 4.4 percent for the year. Because prices and yields move in opposite directions, junk-bond yields have soared, to an average of 12.7 percent, according to Moody's Investors Service, 8.9 percentage points higher than the 10-year Treasury note.
Default rates on junk bonds peaked at 10.7 percent in January and were at 10.1 percent in July, according to Moody's. The last time rates jumped to such levels was in June 1991, when they hit 12.8 percent. The agency's calculation measures the percentage of defaulting companies out of all American corporate bond issuers, while Professor Altman looks at the total dollar value of nonperforming debt. His calculations show a default rate of 11.3 percent in July; it is likely to surpass 12 percent this month.
senior notes of Cablevision Inc. that mature in April 2011 and have a 7 5/8 percent interest coupon are now trading at 82.5 cents on the dollar, up from a low of 70 cents on Aug. 7;
High-yield bonds became widely used in the late 1980's, in part because of the efforts of Michael R. Milken and his firm, Drexel Burnham Lambert, which dominated the sector. But prices crashed in 1990, forcing Drexel into bankruptcy. Mr. Milken went to prison on a securities fraud conviction. A year later, though, the sector rose sharply in value, and it performed well on an annualized basis until late 1997.
NYTIMES
Looking for money through fraud
The postal agency said it responded to 66,000 mail fraud complaints in 2001. So far this year, there have already been about 68,000
NYTIMES
Mining seems not as good as it once was but still offers value plays
Our auto analyst is looking for a 4 percent drop in vehicle production in 2003, compared with this year. The fall off in aerospace construction hasn't happened yet, but orders have dropped off a lot. We are looking for a 15 percent to 20 percent decline in airplane construction next year. And it is hard to see how the housing market gets much better.
The world has about one billion tons of steelmaking capacity, and we really only need about 850 million tons. But governments around the world, including and especially the United States, continue to protect the high-cost producers. As long as that continues, this oversupply situation will continue.
he outlook for copper is actually pretty good. It is one of the few commodities where prices will stop falling and start rising, because the easy, near-surface deposits have already been depleted.
Right now, copper prices are a little bit below 70 cents a pound. At that level, about 5 percent of the world's supply is cash negative, which means companies are spending more to mine it than to sell it. Even if the economy doesn't rebound, eventually you will see more production curtailments. (Phelps Dodge ist überbewertet, besser sind Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold Inc. and Rio Tinto Zinc) Freeport-McMoRan is the lowest-cost producer of copper in the world. They are the lowest because they have a huge copper and gold deposit in Indonesia.
We think stocks like Arch Coal are trading at very attractive valuations. Arch is trading at less than four times our 2003 estimate of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. For a quality company with decades of reserves, much of which has a low sulfur content, that is a very attractive valuation.

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• Presseschau für Sonntag, den 01.09.2002 - nasdaq, 01.09.2002, 12:18