Interessante Greenspan-Rede über die Gründe der 'Bewertungsblase' bei Aktien

verfasst von Popeye, 13.09.2002, 07:37

-->Hier seine Schlußfolgerungen:

In conclusion, the endeavors of policymakers to stabilize our economies
require a functioning model of the way our economies work. Increasingly, it
appears that this model needs to embody movements in equity premiums and
the development of bubbles if it is to explain history.

Any useful model needs to credibly simulate counterfactual alternatives. We
must remember that structural models that do a poor job of explaining
history presumably also will provide an incomplete basis for policymaking.
Often the internal structure of such models has been employed to evaluate
the effect of various stabilization policies. But the results from models
whose internal structure cannot successfully replicate key features of
cyclical behavior must be interpreted carefully. The recent importance of
movements in equity premiums and asset bubbles suggests the need to better
understand and integrate these concepts into the models used for policy
analysis.

I anticipate productive discussion of these and other issues related to
stabilization policy over the next couple of days.

Mehr steht hier:
<ul> ~ http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20020830/default.htm</ul>

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• Interessante Greenspan-Rede über die Gründe der 'Bewertungsblase' bei Aktien - Popeye, 13.09.2002, 07:37