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Mix-Ansicht- Refinanzierungsboom am Ende? Forget The Fed--Fannie Mae Is Tightening (E) - Cosa, 26.09.2002, 21:03
Refinanzierungsboom am Ende? Forget The Fed--Fannie Mae Is Tightening (E)
-->Hi,
hört sich so an als ziehe Fannie Mae die Notbremse; es soll nicht mehr so leicht sein Cash bei der Refinanzierung der Hypotheken zu bekommen, da gerade hier die säumigen Schuldner sitzen. Das dürfte die Konsumfreude der US-Amerikaner erheblich eintrüben.
Ein gebremster Zug bleibt vielleicht stehen, aber umkehren?
Hier der Artikel von comstock.com
<font size="5">Forget The Fed--Fannie Mae Is Tightening</font>
While everyone is focusing on the prospects for another Fed interest rate cut Fannie Mae, the major factor supporting the economy, is getting ready to tighten. According to the Wall Street Journal Fannie Mae has told lenders that it is tightening lending standards on cash-out loans. Economists estimate that funds raised from cash-out mortgage refinancings (REFI) could add about $40 billion or more in consumer spending to the economy by allowing homeowners to tap the equity gained through rising home prices. In our view these refinancings have been the most important factor holding up the economy as a counterweight to a weak labor market, declining confidence, an extremely low consumer savings rate and tepid capital expenditures.
Internal Fannie Mae research has apparently found that these type of loans were defaulting at a higher rate than other mortgages at a time when all mortgages are experiencing a higher rate of delinqencies and foreclosures. Fannie Mae Chief Economist David Berson estimates that cash taken from REFIs this year will probably equal last year's $110 billion and that consumers spend a bit over half of what they take out. Fannie Mae, in its letter to lenders, explained that not only did cash-out REFIs default at a higher rate than other REFIs, but that the more borrowers increased their loans the higher the rate of default.
In our view this prospective tightening by Fannie Mae is far more important than any potential easing by the Fed. First, it emphasizes how overleveraged in debt the consumer has become. Second, it will take a lot of the steam out both REFIs and consumer spending. The importance of cash-out REFIs to the economy is highlighted by Chairman Greenspan's congressional testimony when he singled out the ability of consumers to convert the rise in home prices to spendable cash as a major factor underlying the economic recovery. We always felt that this was a dubious means of supporting a faltering economy, and now apparently someone else agrees. The only surprise is how little play this story received from the media, economists and market strategists. We think that this will be yet another blow to an already struggling economy and a still overvalued market.
Gruss
Cosa
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