aktueller Spin auf Briefing.Com zu Bearmarketrallies

verfasst von kingsolomon, 18.10.2002, 20:25

-->1:30PM: Those making the bearish case have made an interesting point regarding single- day, 5% gains. Namely, they have pointed out that during the Nasdaq's bull run from 1,200 to 5,000, there were only three days that saw gains of 5% or more in the composite index, while during the long bear market from 5,000 to 1,200, there have been 25 rallies of better than 5%. Yet, regarding this point we would note that these rallies have become less frequent: 14 were in 2000, 7 in 2001, and last Tuesday was just the 4th case of a 5% gain in 2002. Make of it what you will. NYSE Adv/Dec 1500/1612, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1534/ 1477

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und um 2:00

2:00PM: Just to show that you can massage stats to tell any story -- we would note in relation to the previous comment a similar story can be told with declines of 5% or more. There were only four such 1- day, 5% declines during the bull market but 20 during the bear market. So what does this all tell you? That volatility has been higher during the popping of the bubble than it was during the inflating of the bubble, which when you think about it isn't that surprising and most likely tells you next to nothing about the future. Still makes for an interesting conversation... NYSE Adv/Dec 1537/1580, Nasdaq Adv/ Dec 1584/1493
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• aktueller Spin auf Briefing.Com zu Bearmarketrallies - kingsolomon, 18.10.2002, 20:25