If They Earn It, Will They Necessarily Spend It?

verfasst von Cosa, 24.10.2002, 10:25

-->Moin,

ein Bericht zu den verfügbaren Einkommen der US-Verbraucher von Northertrust.

<font size="4">If They Earn It, Will They Necessarily Spend It? </font>

October 22, 2002

Some mainstream economists out there are telling us that consumer spending is going to be OK because real disposable personal incomes are rising. And, according to them, if real income is rising, just as night follows day, consumer spending will rise, too. First to facts. On a year-over-year basis, real disposable income growth is slowing, as seen in Chart 1. In part, this is because of no new tax cuts.




<img SRC="http://www.northerntrust.com/library/econ_research/daily/us/images/021022_03.gif">


So, real income growth is slowing. What's more, the personal saving rate is starting to trend higher. Don't be sure, then, that households will necessarily spend what they earn. And if the growth in consumer spending slows, will businesses rush out to take up the slack? I don't think so.

Paul Kasriel

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• If They Earn It, Will They Necessarily Spend It? - Cosa, 24.10.2002, 10:25