Re: Was der consumer confidence index mißt - und was nicht

verfasst von Popeye, 01.11.2002, 06:48

-->Brief Description

The Consumer Confidence Survey measures the level of
confidence individual households have in the performance of
the economy. Survey questionnaires are mailed to a nationwide
representative sample of 5,000 households, of which
approximately 3,500 respond. Households are asked five
questions that include (1) a rating of business conditions in the
household's area, (2) a rating of business conditions in six
months, (3) job availability in the area, (4) job availability in six
months, and (5) family income in six months. The responses are
seasonally adjusted. An index is constructed for each response
and then a composite index is fashioned based on the
responses. Two other indexes, one for an assessment of the
present situation and one for expectations about the future, are
also constructed. Expectations account for 60% of the index,
while the current situation is responsible for the remaining 40%.
In addition, indexes for the present and future economic
situations are calculated for each of the nine Census divisions.
In the base year, 1985, the value of the index was 100.

The Conference Board also tracks consumer buying plans for
the next six months. Among the items tracked are automobiles,
homes, vacations, and major appliances. If the economy
experiences a long-term expansion, buying intentions may
decline even while the jobless rate declines because of the
satisfaction of pent-up demand. Conversely, if inflation begins to
accelerate, spending plans may increase for the short-term as
consumers buy now to avoid having to pay higher prices later.

Consumer confidence correlates closely with joblessness,
inflation, and real incomes. The growth of help wanted
advertising as measured by the Conference Board has also
been a strong contributor to consumer confidence. Rising stock
market prices can also boost consumer confidence.

Quelle:

<ul> ~ http://www.dismal.com/dismal/affiliates/usa_today/gen_definition.asp?r=usa_consumer</ul>

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gesamter Thread:

• Was sagt uns eine steigende (sinkende) consumer confidence bzgl. der Zukunft? mL - Galiani, 31.10.2002, 23:07
  • Und eine EW-Int'l story (for members only) von soeben zeigt, daß d. reale Wirt- - Galiani, 31.10.2002, 23:16
  • Re: haben andere früher auch schon festgestellt. Allerdings - kingsolomon, 31.10.2002, 23:59
  • Re: Was sagt uns eine steigende (sinkende) consumer confidence bzgl. der Zukunft? mL - tas, 01.11.2002, 00:42
  • dass Mr. Market keine Statistik oder Formel ist ;-) - Tiffy, 01.11.2002, 02:01
    • Hallo Tiffy: Nette Gedanken, die Du da äußerst! Gruß (owT) - Galiani, 01.11.2002, 14:54
      • Nett? Stell dir vor, ich wäre Politiker. Nix verstanden,... - Tiffy, 02.11.2002, 21:11
  • Re: Was der consumer confidence index mißt - und was nicht - Popeye, 01.11.2002, 06:48