Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Chapan On Gold - Albrecht, 03.11.2002, 10:30
Chapan On Gold
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Chapman On Gold
Don Murphy, a technical analyst with Merrill Lynch speaking on CNBC says,"My view is that I like gold as an investment. I'm inclined to think that gold is making a secular low, a buy of a generation!" He went on to say,"To be conservative, I'm going to say $450 to $550, but my thought is that gold could go back and challenge the levels we saw in 1980-81 at $850 an ounce!"
Firing of gold analysts....."Midyear it was Kevin Crisp and Dinsa Mehta of Morgan and Chase. Yesterday, it was Goldman Sach's Dan McConvey. These three were very well known in the gold industry and were among the leading apologists for their corrupt bullion banks. McConvey had the perfect background for Goldman as he came there via Barrick Gold." Could it be that exposure is near?
Rumors abound that there is massive accounting fraud at JP Morgan Chase and they are under investigation. It seems the US attorney's office and the New York Attorney General have major investigations in progress. They are in the process of trying to prove criminal intent. The word is their losses, which have been covered up, run to $70 billion. It's expected the hammer will be dropped in the month of December. It's been reported that daily shipments by truck of Federal Reserve Gold out of NYC is covering a $170 billion fraud concealing $70 billion in losses. If this is true, and we believe it fits, then gold would skyrocket.
Gold sold under Washington deal at 60% of total
Marking the third anniversary of the Washington Agreement on Gold (WAG), the World Gold Council (WGC) reports that total sales under the agreement so far (from October 1999 to September 2002) amounted to 60% of the 2000 t scheduled for its five-year term. This figure translates into 1 197 t sold, with Switzerland having sold 603 tonnes, the UK 345 tonnes, Netherlands 136 tonnes, Austria 90 tonnes and Germany 23 tonnes. Considering that Germany's gold sales resulted solely from the demand for gold for the minting of commemorative coins, its reported sale of 23 tonnes seems high, yet the WGC says it reflects the strong demand for the special D-mark coins as the national currency was replaced by the euro.
Swiss gold sales under WAG reflect 283 tonnes sold in the third year, 200 tonnes in the second and 120 in the first year. The total of 603 tonnes sold raised just over $6,1-billion. The Swiss National Bank announced plans to sell a further 283 tonnes in the fourth year of the agreement.
This plan would leave the Netherlands, the only other major seller with gold to dispose under WAG, with a possible 117 tonnes to sell in year four. It is predicted that the remaining 803 tonnes of gold, under the agreement, will be sold by Switzerland and the Netherlands, with 639 tonnes and 164 tonnes respectively, between October 2002 and September 2004.
Americans are fortunate that their Founding Fathers and earlier colonialists gave them a precious metals culture, rooted in sound money. The heritage is still there just waiting to be retrieved by today's patriots.
Word from Goldman Sachs is that Sir Alan is going to drop interest rates 1/2% next week. That makes gold very attractive. It's cheaper to carry a margin position, there is less incentive for central banks to sell gold, or lease gold. The carry trade is non-existent and lower rates mean a lower dollar. The best of all worlds for gold and disaster for the economy and the stock market. Once interest rates are at 1% Sir Alan will have gone a bridge too far. In December when JP Morgan gets hit with either criminal or civil fraud along with Citicorp, gold will go airborne.
JEDDAH, 31 October - The demand for gold in the Kingdom is expected to increase by more than 20 percent during the last quarter of this year, market analysts said. They attributed the increase to a growing trend to invest in gold amid fears of an imminent US attack on Iraq. Osama Al-Wazir, director of World Gold Council for the Gulf countries, said he expected increase in gold sales over the coming months as a result of new developments in the region. Muhammad ibn Saeed of Al-Amoudi Currency Exchange Center said there was big demand for gold coins and biscuits in recent months as many people, especially expatriates, wanted to preserve their money in the form of gold as a safe investment.
JEDDAH, 31 October - The demand for gold in the Kingdom is expected to increase by more than 20 percent during the last quarter of this year, market analysts said. They attributed the increase to a growing trend to invest in gold amid fears of an imminent US attack on Iraq.
Osama Al-Wazir, director of World Gold Council for the Gulf countries, said he expected increase in gold sales over the coming months as a result of new developments in the region. Muhammad ibn Saeed of Al-Amoudi Currency Exchange Center said there was big demand for gold coins and biscuits in recent months as many people, especially expatriates, wanted to preserve their money in the form of gold as a safe investment.
The WGC reported recently that there was a 16 percent increase in gold sales in the Kingdom and other Gulf states during the first half of this year.
GoldQuest International, a gold numismatics company, has approached the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for permission to mint legal tender coins in gold for collectibles market. The company already mints legal tender coins of the Kingdom of Bhutan in gold as collectibles. In India presently no private mint is allowed to mint the legal tender coins in gold. The company sells only gold medallion collectibles In India at present. It is planning to widen its range of products including legal tender coins and watches. The company will also lower its entry level product range to begin with$ 530 as against the international $800 to make it more affordable.
Richard Zinkiewicz, director finance, GoldQuest International, said that in India, the company also wants to create awareness about the numismatics and gold collectibles market and is looking to lower their entry level price point. GoldQuest has set up its headquarters in Chennai. The Indian operations contribute under 10 per cent to the total turnover of US $ 160 million. As part of its vertical growth plans, GoldQuest in India is seeking permission to set up its own private mint. Zinkiewicz said," We are planning to expand the business and our focus is to cross the US $ 200 million mark. India, as a market, has immense potential and we are going increase our focus here," he said.
It's expected that gold imports to India could rise by 15,000 bars a day soon from its present consumption of 11,000 bars weekly. We are now at the peak of the festival season. Next year gold production is expected to be 2,350 tons and demand at a possible 6,000 tons for an estimated shortfall of 3,650 tons. We'd say the shorts and the central banks have a major problem. Never, ever has the future for higher gold prices been brighter. It does not get any better than this. Load up on gold, coins and shares and you will be amply rewarded.
The gold dinar now circulates since 1992 in Spain, Scotland, South Africa, and Germany. Isn't it odd that none of the conventional gold gurus have covered this? Sometimes we just churn in familiar waters without looking outside our own sphere of familiarity! Lest we forget, this"gold thing" is not purely a western phenomenon. Gold is the only universally recognized money of the world, and our scholarly pursuits should be in that regard.
Malaysia backs Iran proposal to set up international gold dinar
Kuala Lumpur, Oct 24, IRNA - Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad has agreed with Iran proposal to set up a secretariat in Malaysia to use the gold dinar among central banks of world Muslim countries."Iran is keen, so we might do this with them," he told newsmen after closing the International Seminar on Gold Dinar in Multilateral Trades organized by the Malaysia's Institute of Islamic Understanding (Ikim).
Dr Mahathir said he would inform the Cabinet of the proposal and if there was agreement, Bank Negara (Central Bank) would be informed. Earlier during a question-and-answer session, Iranian central banker Bijan Latif had suggested that Malaysia set up a secretariat here to provide information on the concept. Dr Mahathir had responded that it was a good idea to have a secretariat here to facilitate communication with central banks of other Muslim countries to explain the concept and examine the laws to allow the use of the gold dinar.
In the session, Ikim chairman Ahmad Sarji Abdul Hamid outlined some of the proposals and issues that needed to be examined before implementation. He said there was an existing prohibition by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the use of gold as a medium of payment and the proposed gold dinar would be a potential violation of the rule. He said there was also a need to study the effects of using a dual currency system tool and whether this would impede the growth of the gold dinar.
Dr Mahathir later told the press conference these were problems that should be looked at and resolved. He said potential countries to use the dinar for trading were Muslim countries with a stable economy. In his speech, he said countries should not be too ambitious in launching the gold dinar for multilateral trade at one go, suggesting instead they start by pairing off two countries. He believed anarchy in the international financial regime would remain because it benefited the rich and powerful and to"protect ourselves, we must evolve our own payment system, our own trading currency." He said the gold dinar could be the currency for trade between nations and if all trade items were valued against gold, then there would be no problem with exchange rate. Dr Mahathir said while the gold price could also be manipulated, this was not as easily done as the US dollar or other currencies."No one can sell gold at below market price because he just will not be able to deliver when called upon to do so. Short selling will be very difficult, if not impossible," he said.
China going for the gold
BEIJING, Oct 28, 2002 (SinoCast via COMTEX) -- During the second trial operation session of Shanghai gold Exchange on October 22, the Shanghai Branch of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) purchased 3 kilogram of AU 99.95 gold with RMB 250,500. The price was RMB 83.50 per gram.
It is said that this is the first time a Chinese commercial bank participating in the gold market. And it starts the gold spot transaction business of commercial banks in China.
November 4, 2002
THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER
An international financial, economic, political and social commentary.
Robert Chapman, Editor
Phone & Fax: 941 639 4756
bif4653@comcast.net or info@intlforecaster.com
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