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Mix-Ansicht- Unerklärlicher Beschäftigungsanstieg in der amerikanischen Landwirtschaft! - Ecki1, 05.11.2002, 21:27
- Re: Unerklärlicher Beschäftigungsanstieg in der amerikanischen Landwirtschaft! - Cosa, 05.11.2002, 22:10
Unerklärlicher Beschäftigungsanstieg in der amerikanischen Landwirtschaft!
-->Statistische Verzerrungen oder ein neuer Trend? Schon mit 1 Tag Arbeit pro Monat fliegt ein Amerikaner aus der Arbeitslosenstatistik. Andererseits ist dieser Anstieg der Beschäftigtenzahl in der amerikanischen Landwirtschaft der stärkste seit 50 Jahren und hat sogar das amerikanische Agrardepartement überrascht. Jedenfalls fand ich diesen Yahoo-Artikel zum Thema"Back to the roots" zu ungewöhnlich, um ihn sang- und klanglos in den rauschenden Tiefen des Datendschungels untergehen zu lassen.
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<font size=+3>Odd Farm-Sector Surge Distorts Jobs Data</font>
Tuesday November 5, 2:48 pm ET
By Wayne Cole
<div align=block> NEW YORK (Reuters) - An inexplicable surge in farm jobs has
played a major part in keeping the U.S. unemployment rate down
in recent months, despite persistent weakness in other labor
market indicators.
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</TD></TR></TABLE></TD></TR></TABLE> Without the jump in farm-based employment since June, the
jobless rate would have climbed steadily to reach 6.0 percent
in October. Instead the jobless rate fell in September and then
inched back to 5.7 percent last month.
If it had topped 6.0 percent, consumer confidence might
have suffered far more, bond yields tumbled and the case for an
interest rate cut -- now expected on Wednesday from the Federal
Reserve -- might be that much clearer.
The strength baffles analysts and statisticians alike and
could reinforce financial market skepticism of the unemployment
figures as a reliable indicator of the economy.
"The massive surge in farm jobs has been an important
factor depressing the published unemployment rate at a time of
little or no growth in nonfarm payroll employment," said Rory
Robertson, an interest rate strategist who covers the U.S.
economy for Australian house Macquarie Equities.
"Of course, the rapid growth in farm jobs -- the fastest in
more than 50 years of data -- seems implausible, to say the
least," he added.
The Department of Labor uses a monthly survey of 60,000
households to compile the unemployment series, in contrast with
the monthly payrolls figures, which come from an established
survey of around 350,000 businesses.
In recent months the unemployment rate has diverged from
the trend in payrolls, dipping from 5.9 percent in June to 5.6
percent in September before edging up to 5.7 percent last
month.
At the same time, payrolls growth has been muted at best,
running at levels which typically would be associated with a
rise in the jobless rate.
The dichotomy has stirred a major debate among economists
-- some of whom claim that the unemployment survey is flawed,
while others argue that it is actually more representative of
the economy as a whole and the payrolls survey is at fault for
overlooking hundreds of thousands of small firms.
The odd behavior of the farm sector would seem to support
critics of the unemployment survey and suggests that the true
jobless rate is higher than the figures suggest.
UP ON THE FARM
The stellar performance of the usually laggard farm sector
certainly sits at odds with the sluggish state of the broad
economy.
Since June some 415,000 jobs have been created in
agriculture, excluding forestry and fishing -- a rise of 13
percent and easily the fastest growth in decades.
While the farm sector makes up only 2.6 percent of total
employment, its surge has accounted for almost fully half of
the 861,000 new civilian jobs generated since June.
"It's certainly an unusual occurrence, but we haven't
looked into it as such," said a spokesperson at the Department
of Labor.
She noted that much of the jump came in October and that
the figures were volatile from month to month, suggesting farm
employment could easily fall sharply in November.
Farm jobs climbed 227,000, seasonally adjusted, in October
to 3.525 million, having risen 110,000 the month before. In
June total farm sector employment was reported at 3.110
million.
The strength of farm jobs also came as a surprise to the
Department of Agriculture, where an economist said there had
been no developments in the industry to account for such an
astounding pickup.
"Is anything real going on here?" asked Robertson at
Macquarie."Or is it best just to walk away with the conclusion
that the household survey data -- including the published
unemployment rate -- are too erratic to be taken seriously?"
</DIV>
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