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Mix-Ansicht- Bush's Irak-Pläne - Bob, 11.11.2002, 13:07
Bush's Irak-Pläne
-->Bush Begins to Consider Plans
For Post-Hussein State in Iraq
By DAVID S. CLOUD and CARLA ANNE ROBBINS
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration is planning to keep thousands of U.S. troops in Iraq if Saddam Hussein is overthrown, and to create an international civil authority, possibly headed by an American, that would administer the country for at least two years before a new Iraqi government takes full control.
The far-reaching U.S. role being envisioned for a post-Hussein Iraq, as described by senior officials involved in the planning, is a sharp departure for the Bush administration, which has been deeply skeptical of nation-building elsewhere. Top Pentagon officials, who opposed broadening the U.S. military's mission in Afghanistan, are some of the most enthusiastic proponents of an ambitious U.S.-led effort to rebuild Iraq and transform it into a stable democratic society, arguing that the undertaking is the key to stabilizing the entire Middle East.
Officials expect the U.S. military would directly govern Iraq for at least three to four months in the potentially chaotic period after Mr. Hussein's ouster. During that time it would set three priorities: delivering humanitarian supplies, securing any weapons of mass destruction and maintaining basic order. Several thousand Iraqi exiles are likely to be trained as police to assist U.S. troops, officials said.
Within a few months, the military administration would be replaced by an international civilian administration protected and supported by U.S. troops and, in the best case, a broader international peacekeeping force. The emerging plan envisions Iraqi technocrats untainted by too close an association with Mr. Hussein quickly taking on an active public role as advisers and day-to-day administrators, in part to reassure Iraqis and the Muslim world that U.S. troops are there as liberators rather than as conquerors.
The transition to an Iraqi-led government still is expected to take two years -- or even longer. Before Iraqis could assume full control, officials say, a new constitution would have to be written and there would have to be a census and elections, beginning with local mayors and culminating with balloting for national leaders. U.S. officials say they are still working out which members of Mr. Hussein's regime would be prosecuted for possible war crimes and how extensively to purge ministries of his supporters. A group of Iraqi exiles advising the State Department has drafted three lists for possible prosecutions, ranging from a dozen members of Mr. Hussein's inner circle to 120 military and political leaders across the country.
The discussions about how to administer a post-Hussein Iraq have progressed even as the U.S. agreed with the United Nations to give the Iraqi leader one more chance to disarm or face"serious consequences." Meanwhile, Pentagon officials say the planning for a possible invasion, should the Iraqi leader again defy the U.N., is complete.
Under the current plan, an invasion would start quickly with a massive air assault and a comparatively small ground attack aimed at destroying Mr. Hussein's ability to communicate with senior commanders and his most loyal internal security forces. If the regime withstands those initial assaults, the total U.S. force could build to as many as 250,000 troops. Ultimately, senior defense officials say holding Iraq together following an invasion could be a far more difficult task than toppling Mr. Hussein and his military.
President Bush's principal foreign-policy advisers have met only once to discuss the shape of a post-war Iraq, according to one top official. Officials caution that the current plan is the result of considerable compromise among second-tier officials that leaves several crucial questions unanswered. Officials also warn that Iraq historically has been a deeply divisive subject for the president's top advisers and that the current consensus could break apart as Mr. Bush gets closer to making final decisions.
Perhaps the pivotal underlying question is how much to brand the transition government a U.S. creation. The State Department is concerned a U.S. invasion will provoke a strong anti-American reaction in the region and that any impression the U.S. is seizing the country for itself or installing a puppet government in Baghdad will only increase that danger. As a result, U.S. diplomats want an international administration -- perhaps newly created or led by the U.N. -- to administer Iraq during the transition. Civilian officials at the Pentagon and in the office of Vice President Cheney consider those risks exaggerated and are less concerned about an overt U.S. role. In a meeting of Mr. Bush's principal advisers, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld argued the transitional administration should be headed by an American who reports directly to him, according to one senior U.S. official.
Also unsettled is the question of how central a role should be played by exiled Iraqis, including Ahmed Chalabi, head of the Iraqi National Congress, an umbrella organization of anti-Hussein groups. Mr. Chalabi has strong ties to senior Pentagon officials and aides in Mr. Cheney's office, but is greatly mistrusted by the State Department. The current consensus seems to relegate Mr. Chalabi and other exile leaders to an advisory role for any international administration, along with respected leaders still inside Iraq who are expected to emerge during any war and its aftermath.
Whether Pentagon officials will accept this is unknown. Some argue the U.S. should quickly give its blessing to a provisional government headed by Mr. Chalabi and his group. They warn that if the U.S. awaits elections before designating new Iraqi leaders, it will have little control over who emerges."It would be a very good idea to bring in Iraqis as quickly as possible" after Mr. Hussein exits, a Pentagon official said."And of all the opposition groups, the only one really interested in establishing a democracy is the INC."
U.S. officials say they still aren't certain what they would do if an Iraqi military leader decides to stage a coup before a U.S. invasion begins, or in the early days of a military operation. The White House has urged the Iraqi military to do just that, but officials say privately that such a move could complicate matters.
U.S. officials have been discussing how they would judge whether such a coup meant enough real change for the U.S. to halt an invasion, or was simply replacing Mr. Hussein with another dictator it would want ousted. One of the biggest questions is whether the U.S. still would push to occupy the country if a new leader was deemed tolerable enough to work with. At a minimum, officials say some plan would have to be devised to allow a large force to oversee the quick destruction of any hidden weapons of mass destruction.
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