Chartvergleich AOL - RCA (20iger Jahre)

verfasst von Cosa, 14.11.2002, 11:17

-->Moin,

ein interessantes Update des Chartvergleiches AOL - RCA ist auf tocqueville.com zu sehen; klar alles zurück zum Ausgangspunkt ;-) trotzdem interessant der Vergleich der"Pioniere" zweier Epochen.

<font size="5">A Little Tap On The Shoulder </font>

Back in December 1999, in a piece modestly entitled AOL, RCA and The Shape of History, we published the following chart. It compared the performance of RCA (the pioneer of radio) in the 1920s to that of AOL (the pioneer of mass-market Internet) in the 1990s. The idea had come from an article in the New Yorker and we inferred that, regardless of a company's technological merits or uniqueness, a speculative bubble is a bubble and it will burst. Here is the chart as presented then:
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As for comments, they are less visually obvious than the roughly 90-percent decline in the stock price in less than three years.

First, there is the seemingly paradoxical precept of one of my early mentors. 'When a young, exciting company is not yet profitable', he used to say somewhat tongue-in-cheek, 'it is hard for its stock to go down, because it is driven by dreams. But when it becomes profitable, beware! The stock price must then confront the reality of the company's computable earning power and it will often come down as dreams are replaced with more realistic expectations'.

During the period between the two charts, AOL's operating losses first began to shrink and, more recently, became actual earnings. At the same time, however, it slowly became obvious that Internet advertising was falling short of early hopes ' especially in the wake of the collapse of many early advertisers, themselves fledgling Internet companies. Concurrently, it became known that AOL was not the ideal internet provider for broadband access, which is the fastest growing segment of the market. Finally, the rationalization of the Time-Warner acquisition, which was supposed to ideally marry the premier content provider with the largest portal, began to look like an intellectual construction with many cultural and other obstacles. Dreams were being overtaken by reality.

More broadly at stake is the skepticism inherent in all contrarian investing. When the price of a stock has gone up exponentially, this skepticism can be summarized by the simplistic but age-tested adage: 'trees don't grow to the sky'. Great companies, like RCA, can keep growing for a long, long time. But stock prices, besides operating results, are moved to a significant degree by crowd psychology. As a result, they fluctuate widely around any definition of fundamental value, as the crowd?s mood oscillates between excess optimism and excess pessimism. This is true even when the company's fundamental value keeps going up. When the mood is excessively optimistic, a company's stock price discounts too many years of future growth if the company should continue to do well and provides no cushion for disappointments (even minor ones) should operations falter.

Quelle, vollständiger Artikel
ursprünglicher Artikel aus 1999

Gruss
Cosa

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gesamter Thread:

• Chartvergleich AOL - RCA (20iger Jahre) - Cosa, 14.11.2002, 11:17
  • Re: Chartvergleich AOL - RCA (20iger Jahre) - -- ELLI --, 14.11.2002, 12:33
    • Re: Chartvergleich AOL - RCA (20iger Jahre) - monopoly, 14.11.2002, 12:47
      • Re: Chartvergleich AOL - RCA (20iger Jahre) / @momopoly - - ELLI -, 14.11.2002, 13:34
        • Re: Chartvergleich AOL - RCA (20iger Jahre) / - monopoly, 14.11.2002, 14:25