Wenn die Minen mit dem Abbau der Hegdes fertig sind, sinkt der Goldpreis

verfasst von kingsolomon, 18.11.2002, 16:47

-->sagt dieser Artikel in der Financial Times

FRONT PAGE - COMPANIES & MARKETS: Gold's Midas touch leaves banks cold
By Adrienne Roberts
Financial Times; Nov 18, 2002


Against a backdrop of corporate scandals and plunging stock markets, the price of gold has climbed by about 20 per cent in the past 18 months. Mining companies' profit margins have grown and anyone with a nest egg of bullion bars is feeling a little safer.

Not everyone in the market is smiling, however. Business has never been tougher for the bullion banks and, while investors have a new- found enthusiasm for gold, the serious money has bypassed the metal itself, pouring instead into mining shares.

Meanwhile, the bullion banks, which do business with the mining groups and central banks, have seen their profits dwindle. That is largely because of the fall in hedging business. When the outlook for gold prices is uncertain, mining companies might choose to manage the risk by locking in a future price for their gold. Bullion banks help make these forward sales possible, providing derivative products such as forwards and options.

Hedging was good business for the banks during the 1990s as they designed increasingly sophisticated derivative structures for clients. But producers became more cautious after 1999 when the gold price spiked unexpectedly and Ashanti Goldfields of Ghana and Cambior of Canada's derivative positions brought them close to disaster.

"By 2000 the producers were looking at much more 'plain vanilla'-type business: basic forwards, basic options," says one mining executive."The really lucrative trades started drying up though there was continued volume in the bread and butter stuff."

But as gold has pulled out of its decade-long slump, producers have stopped hedging. Some are letting contracts expire, others are buying themselves out of their positions.

Conventional wisdom says this development, and gold's rally, were begun the US Federal Reserve. Falling dollar interest rates made it unprofitable for miners to hedge, or for speculators to sell the metal short.

For forward sales to make commercial sense, the cost of borrowing gold must be less than the cost of borrowing money. In the mid 1990s one could have borrowed gold at 1 per cent, sold it and invested the proceeds at 7 per cent. But falling US interest rates have narrowed that gap.

Not only is hedging no longer profitable, it has become anathema to investors seeking exposure to gold's rally.

Investor sentiment has rewarded the unhedged miners, putting pressure on the non-hedgers to increase their price exposure. Shares in the unhedged South African producer Gold Fields have risen about 160 per cent in US dollar terms over the past year, compared with about 70 per cent for rival Anglogold, which does hedge (although Anglogold and other hedgers have significantly reduced their books).

While producers continue reducing their hedge books, they continue to support bullion prices. Ironically, the suppliers themselves have become a key source of demand for the metal.

"In 1999, producers were adding around 500 tonnes of gold a year to supply through hedging. They are now taking back around 500 tonnes through de-hedging," says Andy Smith, analyst at Mitsui in London.

But once the producers have finished buying, will there be enough other demand to keep gold buoyant? Investment demand for bullion has risen - by 12 per cent in the first half of 2002 compared with that period in 2001, according to the World Gold Council. But recent data show that producer buybacks were mirrored by a fall in demand from jewellery makers as prices climbed.

"If you take a very bearish view, once the crust of producer buying is finished then prices may slide alarmingly," says a banker. With US interest rates still low and the dollar floundering, however, it might be premature to call the end of gold's run just yet

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gesamter Thread:

• Wenn die Minen mit dem Abbau der Hegdes fertig sind, sinkt der Goldpreis - kingsolomon, 18.11.2002, 16:47
  • Re: Wenn die Minen mit dem Abbau der Hegdes fertig sind, sinkt der Goldpreis - patrick, 18.11.2002, 18:11
    • Lächerlich, - drooy, 18.11.2002, 18:35