Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Aktieninvestoren kaufen den weißen Elefant - nasdaq, 19.11.2002, 01:04
Aktieninvestoren kaufen den weißen Elefant
-->Bill Gross mit neuem Investmentoutlook. Positiv zu werten ist, dass er endlich mal diese S&P 500 Earnings von 18,5 USD anspricht. Wenn das kein bekannter macht hört sowieso keiner drauf. Wieviele Prozent der Investoren wissen schon, dass der S&P 500 ein KGV von 50 hat und selbst wenn sich die Gewinne massiv verbessern nicht günstiger als 30 wird.
Darüber hinaus spricht er diesen Nonsense des Vergleichs mit der Gewinnrendite und den Staatsanleihen an.
In a nutshell, Gross writes that stocks are wildly overvalued based on S&P’s “core earnings” guide. “Instead of the nearly $42 per share of operating earnings that S&P [500] companies reported as of 6/02, Standard & Poor's estimates that"Core Earnings", were only $18.48,” Gross writes. “Put that 50x P/E in your value pipe and smoke it.”
He further goes on to argue that shares are some 30% overvalued in comparison to Baa corporate bonds, rather than undervalued as the “Fed model” (which compares the earnings yield of the S&P to that of the 10-year Treasury) suggests.
“Should the Street really be using 10-year Treasuries as the convenient bogey to beat?,” he writes (and rants). “After all, Treasuries are risk free and stocks anything but. Instead, how about an apples-to-apples comparison for once?”
While acknowledging that “we all hear what we want to hear and disregard at least some of the rest” and that he is a “bond guy with a supposed axe to grind,” Gross concludes: “Unless ‘true’ earnings accelerate sharply or Baa corporate yields come down smartly...stock investors are seeing (and buying) a lot of white elephants these days.”
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