Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Kraftvoller Coup (NZZ zu Bush's Paket) - YIHI, 07.01.2003, 22:24
- Re:die einen sehen es so, die anderen wiederum ganz anders (Comstock) - kingsolomon, 08.01.2003, 00:19
Re:die einen sehen es so, die anderen wiederum ganz anders (Comstock)
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und ich denke, dass Minter und Co näher an der Realität liegen...
Sell The News?
The old adage says, “Buy the anticipation, and sell the news”. That’s what happened today as the market peaked almost coincidentally with the end of the President’s speech outlining his proposals. In our view, the combination of new year investment programs and the excitement leading up to the Administration’s fiscal proposals resulted only in creating the right shoulder of what could turn out to be an important head and shoulders top. The left shoulder peaked at 925 (S&P 500) on November 6 with the head topping at 954 on December 2. Yesterday’s high was at 931, a level that was not quite reached today despite the “expert” guests on CNBC screaming with enthusiasm as the market surged, only to turn down sharply as soon as they were off the air. As we have stated repeatedly, we believe that the late 1990s bubble and subsequent bursting left in its wake serious structural imbalances not subject to easy solution by monetary and fiscal policy. Over the past 13 years Japan has suffered from three recessions, no growth and deflation despite near-zero interest rates and massive fiscal stimulus. Of the $670 billion in fiscal stimulus proposed by the White House, only about $90 billion is estimated to take effect over the next 16 months while state and local budget deficits will offset most of the Federal stimulus over that period. Consumers have already been benefiting from significant mortgage refinancing cash outs and zero interest rates on auto loans. As a result consumers have record debts and savings rates are still low. In addition we don’t see much in the fiscal package that will induce corporations to increase capital expenditures; if anything, they are slashing expenses as rapidly as they can.
All in all we think it’s likely that the stock market response to the fiscal plan is already over and that investor attention will return once more to the tepid earnings outlook, the weak labor picture and the unstable geopolitical situation. The neckline of the potential head and shoulders top is about 870, and a breakdown from that level could lead to another serious downleg. The fact that the market is still highly overvalued almost three years into a major bear market lends further support to our views.
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