Gold $200 all night long

verfasst von Minicooper, 15.01.2003, 00:18

-->ELLI, Deine amerikanischen EW-Kollegen kommen anscheinend zum gleichen Schluss wie Du: Gold erst runter auf $200 und dann geht's ab zum Mond. Und Deflation wird auch gesehen..


"In February 2001, Prechter suggested sentiment on gold had become too negative and forecast a rally of as much as $100 per ounce, suggesting $360 as the"maximum upside," Hochberg recalled Tuesday."We got that rally and it's pretty clear to us [gold] is topping here."

In a more recent note, Prechter said silver's series of"lower highs" and the corresponding"nonconfirmation" of gold's rally is another reason for his bearish view on the yellow metal. (That's something I'd like to hear silver bull Bill Fleckenstein address.)


Hochberg forecast that gold will go down"fairly easily" to the $315-$320 range before bouncing, and then resume the downward path to $200. From there, he thinks gold will"take off." (Technically, that makes him a"long-term bull," but that's a stretch for sure.)

At first glance, forecasting $200 gold seems counterintuitive with Prechter's other prediction of Dow 3000, or thereabouts. Since early 2001, gold and U.S. equities have produced almost perfect divergence, with the metal up 33% in the past two years as of Monday's close and the S&P 500 down 30%. (The XAU is up nearly 57% in the same time frame.)

However,"you can't make a monolithic statement about there being a negative correlation," Hochberg said, noting gold and stocks fell in tandem from March 2000 until March 2001.

Hochberg foresees a scenario of intensifying deflationary pressures that will crimp demand for both stocks and gold, historically perceived as an inflation hedge."


<ul> ~ http://www.thestreet.com/pf/markets/aarontaskfree/10062705.html</ul>

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gesamter Thread:

• Gold $200 all night long - Minicooper, 15.01.2003, 00:18
  • Re: Gold $200 all night long - -- ELLI --, 15.01.2003, 00:23
    • Re: Gold $200 all night long / Jetzt noch, im Monat zwei nach Bernanke? - El Sheik, 15.01.2003, 00:33
      • Saddameter bei nur 60% - El Sheik, 15.01.2003, 00:36
      • Re: Gold $200 all night long / Jetzt noch, im Monat zwei nach Bernanke? - -- ELLI --, 15.01.2003, 00:56
        • @Elli - mit der Ausnahme wirst Du den Nagel auf den Bush getroffen haben ;-( - Baldur der Ketzer, 15.01.2003, 01:02
        • Re: Gold $200 all night long / Jetzt noch, im Monat zwei nach Bernanke? - chiron, 15.01.2003, 08:35
      • Re: Gold $200 all night long / Jetzt noch, im Monat zwei nach Bernanke? - MC Muffin, 15.01.2003, 11:29
    • Re: Gold $200 all night long - Spirit of JuergenG, 15.01.2003, 12:08
      • Re: Gold $200 all night long - - ELLI -, 15.01.2003, 13:30
        • Re: Gold $200 all night long - Spirit of JuergenG, 15.01.2003, 14:18
        • Re: Gold $200 all night long - Diogenes, 15.01.2003, 14:19
          • Re: Gold $200 all night long - - ELLI -, 15.01.2003, 14:29
            • Elli,Du sagst also: Bei objektiver Anwendung der Elliott-Regeln kommt zu 90 %.. - spieler, 15.01.2003, 15:46
              • Re: Elli,Du sagst also: Bei objektiver Anwendung der Elliott-Regeln kommt zu 90 %.. - -- ELLI --, 15.01.2003, 16:00
                • Du forderst meine nächste Frage ja förmlich heraus....zwei allerletzte Fragen - spieler, 15.01.2003, 16:23
                  • Re: Du forderst meine nächste Frage ja förmlich heraus....zwei allerletzte Fragen - -- ELLI --, 15.01.2003, 17:53
            • Re: Gold $200 all night long - Spirit of JuergenG, 15.01.2003, 17:33
              • Re: Gold $200 all night long - -- ELLI --, 15.01.2003, 17:41
            • Re: Gold $200 all night long - Diogenes, 15.01.2003, 20:06
    • Re: Gold $200 all night long - MC Muffin, 15.01.2003, 14:33