Re: Damit's im Forum gespeichert wird - hier Text und Bild

verfasst von yatri, 28.01.2003, 10:06

-->The"Go it Alone" Iraq War! Author: James Sinclair Mon Jan 27, 2003Hedge Fund Operations in Gold & Gold Shares.The Final Answer to the Million-Dollar Question:Why Are Gold Shares Doing What they Are Doing?As the short interest in gold shares started to increase, it was easy to excuse the phenomenon as a product of what occurs in markets when active listed options exist. However, that excuse for the short position now defies logic because the short side of the gold shares exceeds the open interest for the appropriate options that would apply.Are you totally perplexed by the action of gold, which is robust, and the action of the shares which is debilitated? Have you noticed that when gold strengthens, the shares hit a brick wall? Yes, I know you have but have you seen the timing of that strange and contradictory occurrence? The answer to what is going on is shouting at you if you have the ability to see the charts in real time on a one-minute bar overlaid as shares over gold. You will see that as gold is being purchased, the shares are being shorted.What has occurred is that major ratio traders (those who develop mathematical relationships determined by back testing to balance potential loss and gain on either leg which is subsequently adjusted to their bullish or bearish desires) and hedge funds are the source of the gold share short, being long gold and short the shares. In truth, I cannot blame them where the gold producer hedgers are concerned but it seems they may have gone bonkers with this spread and simply shorted all listed gold producing companies from 100,000 ounces per annum and up. It also looks to me as if there might be a little hanky-panky going on since the short of certain shares seems to exceed that which is reasonably available to borrow. A requirement of a short sale is delivery of shares. These shares are obtained by borrowing. Every major brokerage concern has a loan clerk for this purpose. Only shares on margin are automatically available for lending. Fully paid shares require permission of the lender to qualify them as available to the short seller. I have given you one lesson on felony 101: explaining how probabilities support Enron as being the yet to be discovered largest money laundry to have ever existed. I will also give you a felony lesson on how to short sell a listed stock without an up tick: back the sale through Canada or elsewhere over the counter where delivery laws are different. This is a key reason why some stocks face inexplicable bear raids on NASDAQ. Now please do not be tempted to employ these illicit strategies. They are only explained so you will understand market phenomena.So, in my opinion, the short of gold stocks culprit now is identified as Hedge Funds and Hedge Operators long gold and short the shares. The interesting point is that these funds plan to sell gold between $372 and $386 into the Iraq invasion with a plan to cover the short gold stock on a gold bullion price pull back after the invasion. What have the Hedge Funds gotten wrong?Why are these hedge operators going to be hurt financially on this play?First and foremost, they have the wrong price at which gold will potential top in the short-term top as we begin the transition between Wave#1 and Wave # 2 of this long term gold bull market. I believe I know the right gold price number but am not eager to put it in print so the hedge funds can hurt the community gold stock traders that they are already taking advantage of.For those that wish to know the gold price that maximizes this leg, please, if you are not already on my email list, go to www.tanrange.com and register on this site. That way you will go on my private list automatically and save my staff a great deal of work and potential error in your email address. I will have the list carefully reviewed. I will soon email you an attempt to do the impossible. That is outlining the future of gold in terms of time and price. You will have to bear with me knowing, as I do, the impossibility of such a task. I will present it twice under two different conditions. However, we will constantly monitor progress as the ability to predict from point to point, the gold price is doable, or at least it has been so far in my career.The Hedge Fund Errors1/ The Hedgers & Hedge funds are going to exit the futures on gold at the wrong price thereby leaving themselves increasingly exposed to the debits developing on their gold shares position.2/ The Hedgers & Hedge funds have shorted the gold shares too hard in light of the relatively small floating share supply. In some cases, as I see it, the entire float on certain issues may well be shorted.3/ The Hedgers & Hedge funds are not familiar with the tenacious nature of the gold share investor vs. the gold share trader and therefore will not get the volume of selling they are hoping for.Conclusion:As gold approaches the $381 to $386 price level, shares will start to firm and gold's momentum will slow slightly. This will be due to the operations of the Hedgers and Hedge funds getting ready to rake in their expected profits. However, as gold trades into the middle $390s you will see the gold shares start to move ahead of gold momentum-wise as some of the faster and smarter hedgers will see an abyss of losses opening in front of them. As gold passes $400, which will be to almost everyone's surprise, the Hedgers will panic and gold shares will go ballistic.These gold share shorts, in certain instances, are simply too large and therefore cannot be covered under any circumstance that I can envision. Like the mountain of derivatives, the hedgers have gone wild in this shorting of the smallest capitalization that can be found in any publicly traded industry, the gold mining industry.What"fundamental factor" have the Hedgers and Hedge funds forgotten that will totally bury them in their gold share shorts well after the Iraq invasion is history?The mistake made by these greedy hedgers and hedge funds is the definition of the USA going it alone. What that means is that no one will share the cost of the operation with the US but, more importantly, share the cost of reconstruction of Iraq and its modernization. I gave you a must read in the current issue of"Foreign Affairs." Basically a mouthpiece of the sitting administration, this journal tends to reflect foreign policy trends relatively well. Reading it that way, and not critically, it can be a useful tool in understanding the impact of international politics on markets. I have already told you that since Lawrence of Arabia, the mistake made by the West concerning Middle-East matters have been the same. We fight battles and then, as recently as the Iraq invasion, leave the results in the hands of anything from despots, international criminals to our sworn enemies. As a result, the Mid-East situation for their citizens never changes, but in our terms simply gets worse.This invasion will be followed by a rebuilding of Iraq as Bush will not stop the fight unless Hussein and bin Laden are history, or more likely, occupying the same hut somewhere in Upper Mongolia.The cost of this invasion, assuming a short war and the rebuild, is well over one trillion dollars. That will be paid for by expansion of the monetary aggregates. As a result of"going it alone," the USA, who will bear at least 90% of this cost, will gain from the business demand but lose on the impact of all this on the US Dollar. The US Dollar is building multiple head and shoulders, as did Enron and General Electric, with a dollar downside maximum potential well under the low I have suggested to you at 72 on the USDX. This insures that gold will find its way back into the system to prevent the multiple head and shoulder potential for the US dollar from becoming real market prices.In the final analysis, the War against Iraq will help business activity and hurt the dollar. Gold will rise to a level not expected by the Hedgers and Hedge funds will react and return to the second leg of the long-term bull market from a reaction low so high as to nail the Hedger and Hedge Funds. That low in the reaction to come could even be higher than gold is today.Recommendation to the Gold share investment community:1/ Do not let these hedgers spook you out of your shares now. They certainly are trying as of this evening's close. Look at the fight on RGLD as it tries to make new highs today. Who do they think they are kidding? Not an old pro like me.2/ Get ready for gold shares to improve in their performance quite soon.3/ All of you who have fully paid for your shares take delivery immediately and do not take no for an answer. Most web based brokers have never had a client ask for delivery of their securities and some have actually said they are uncertain of the mechanism.4/ All of you that are on margin long gold shares, shame on you. But after saying that, the instant you make a sale and as a result eliminate your debit, order delivery of your shares and do not take no for an answer.5/ Go to www.tanrange.com and register. I will email you the best guidance I can. Please remember that I am a seasoned trader and major market risk taker but not a seer.Below is an example of a few short situations in less than leaders in the gold field. I am also including a link to an interesting article on gold that appeared in Gold-Eagle.com: http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/jmurphy012703.html

Table: Gold Shorts Source:"Shorts Attacking the Gold Miners"

<ul> ~ http://www.tanrange.com/s/ChairmansCorner.asp?ReportID=48083</ul>

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gesamter Thread:

• Sinclair-Theorie: Hedge Funds long POG und short Minen - kingsolomon, 28.01.2003, 09:30
  • Re: Damit's im Forum gespeichert wird - hier Text und Bild - yatri, 28.01.2003, 10:06
  • Sinclair empfiehlt die physische Auslieferung der Goldaktien!!!! - Silberblick, 28.01.2003, 14:52
    • Re: Sinclair empfiehlt die physische Auslieferung der Goldaktien!!!! - patrick, 28.01.2003, 15:03
      • Re: Sinclair empfiehlt die physische Auslieferung der Goldaktien!!!! - Euklid, 28.01.2003, 15:14
      • Das ist keine gute Idee fürchte ich - HB, 28.01.2003, 20:51
  • die hedger haben wohl ein tip bekommen o. vermuten, dass - patrick, 28.01.2003, 15:07