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<font size="5">Opec may cut output despite war threat </font>
Doha |Reuters | 05-02-2003
Opec President Abdullah bin Hamda Al Attiyah said yesterday a recovery in oil exports from
strike-bound Venezuela meant the group might need to cut supplies in the second quarter,
despite the threat of war in Iraq.
"Given the scenario as it is today, we could have a three-million barrel-per-day glut," Attiyah
said, adding that demand usually declines by two million bpd in the second quarter on the 77
million bpd world market.
Asked whether the gradual restoration of Venezuelan exports made it more likely that Opec
would have to cut production at its March 11 meeting, he said:"Yes, why not."
Crude output and exports from Opec's third biggest producer, Venezuela, have crept up in
recent days as President Hugo Chavez seeks to break a two-month-old general strike which, at
its height, all but wiped out exports.
Chavez said on Sunday that production had recovered to 1.8 million barrels a day from a low of
150,000 bpd in December and compared to more than three million bpd before the strike. Rebel
workers put output at 1.2 million and shippers say exports have risen to 890,000 bpd, a third
of normal volumes.
"This is good news. Venezuela is coming back, balancing supply and demand by putting more oil
in the market," Attiyah, who is also Qatari oil minister, told reporters on the sidelines of a gas
conference in Qatar.
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed at an emergency session in January
to increase its official production limits by 1.5 million bpd to 24.5 million bpd to counter the
Venezuelan shortage.
It now fears that as Venezuela's exports recover there may be a glut in global supplies.
Any full restoration of Venezuelan supplies looks a long way off. Permanent production capacity
losses are estimated at at least 400,000 bpd.
Uncertainty surrounds Opec's March decision because by the time it meets, U.S.-led forces
may have launched, or be about to launch, an attack on Iraq.
Washington has said Baghdad has just"weeks" to come clean on its alleged weapons
programmes or face war.
Iraq exports about two million bpd of crude and traders are worried that a cornered Iraqi
leader Saddam Hussain may retaliate by trying to damage Kuwaiti or Saudi oil facilities.
Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zangeneh said that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting
Countries should cut production in the second quarter if both Iraq and Venezuela continue to
produce oil until then.
"If we have Iraq and Venezuela sustaining production, I'm sure we will have to reduce
production in the second quarter," Zangeneh said.
Zangeneh said even if Venezuela fully restores output and the market witnesses an outage of
Iraqi production because of a war, there still will be no shortage of supply.
Zangeneh said Iran is presently producing about 3.6 million bpd, while its production capacity
is four million bpd. However, he says there's no need to increase supply now.
Meanwhile Nigerian presidential adviser on petroleum and energy, Rilwanu Lukman, said his
country now has 500,000 bpd of spare capacity, and is producing two million bpd, plus some
condensate.
Asked if Nigeria will demand a higher quota during Opec's March meeting, given his country's
spare capacity, Lukman said Nigeria would ask Opec for a higher quota"in due course."
Nigeria's quota is presently 2.017 million bpd.
Gruss
Cosa
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