Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- zum Zustand amerikanischer Haushalte - Households Are In Good Shape? - Cosa, 14.02.2003, 12:31
zum Zustand amerikanischer Haushalte - Households Are In Good Shape?
-->Hi,
Paul Kasriel hat sich die kürzliche Veröffentlichung des `Debt Service Burden` der Fed vorgenommen.
<font size="4">Households Are In Good Shape? </font>
February 12, 2003
"Adding in the fixed costs associated with other financial obligations, such as rental payments of tenants, consumer installment credit, and auto leases, the total servicing costs faced by households relative to their incomes are below previous peaks and do not appear to be a significant cause for concern at this time." So stated Fed Chairman Greenspan in his testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, February 11. Chairman Greenspan is not alone in this view. Many other economists/analysts think that household debt will not encumber household spending in any meaningful way in the foreseeable future. I beg to differ.
The Fed calculates a quarterly series that measures the debt service burden of households. The history of this series is shown in Chart 1. The numerator of this ratio or percentage includes required principal and interest payments on household debt - consumer and mortgage debt. The latest reading on household debt service burdens (2002:Q3) is 14.00%. This is down from its historic peak set in 2001:Q4 of 14.39%. Previous to this, the highest debt service burden was recorded in 1986:Q4 at 14.34%. As Fed Chairman Greenspan correctly alludes to, historical comparisons are not"apple-to-apple" comparisons. In recent years, homeownership has soared. A person who perhaps was paying the same in rent he/she is now paying in mortgage principal and interest would now have a higher debt service burden than when renting. But it could be that his/her monthly out-of-pocket housing expenses had not changed. So, a given"reported" debt service burden today versus 10 years ago might be lower"effective" debt service burden because of the increased incidence of homeownership. There are other factors, such as car lease payments, which are not included in the Fed's calculation of debt service burdens that would operate in the opposite way. But Greenspan's staff has studied the issue and come to the conclusion that today's reported 14% debt service burden is effectively lower.
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There might be more useful indicators of household debt problems than the Fed's debt service burden measure. Chart 3 shows that personal bankruptcy filings have shot up in recent quarters. This is a pretty direct indicator of stress in the household credit arena. It seems to me that bankruptcy just might have something to do with whether or not debt is burdensome.
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If household credit burdens are no problem, why are banks tightening up on their terms of lending on residential mortgages? Chart 5 shows that the net percentage of respondent banks tightening their mortgage terms has gone from 1.9% in 2002:Q2 to 11.1% in 2003:Q1. Although 11.1% is a far cry from the 32.7% of 1991:Q1, it is the highest reading since then.
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In sum, Chairman Greenspan might be convinced that household debt burdens do not present some challenges to household spending going forward, but I'm not.
Paul Kasriel
Quelle: Northerntrust
einen Chart zu den angesprochenen Zwangsversteigerungen habe ich momentan nicht parat, aber hier die säumigen Hypothekenzahler der letzten drei Jahre:
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Gruss
Cosa
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