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Mix-Ansicht- Interessante Beitäge zum Goldpreistief aus dem Crystal Ball Forum - Albrecht, 14.02.2003, 20:15
- Interessante Beitäge zum Goldpreistief aus dem Crystal Ball Forum (2. Beitrag) - Albrecht, 14.02.2003, 20:17
Interessante Beitäge zum Goldpreistief aus dem Crystal Ball Forum (2. Beitrag)
-->Category: Market Predictions
From: sjrock (Steven Rock)
To: ALL
Date Posted: February 02, 2003 at 19:28:41
Subject: XAU and Fibonacci....too perfect to happen?
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If we count the 11/27 low of 61.64 as the end of a triangle from the June top and the end of the first post-triangle wave as the 82.89 value hit on 1/24, the pattern could continue like this:
The.618 retrace of the move from 61.64 to 82.89 is 69.76. Then a rally equal to the previous move (21.25 points) would peak at 91.01. (This might occur as bullion reaches a new high, OR as a negative divergence against a lower bullion high.) This just happens to be 1 cent off the point where the post-triangle rally (61.64-91.01) is exactly.618 times the distance from the October 2000 low of 41.61 to the June 2002 high of 89.11. As I have posted before, I count the post-triangle move as wave E of Intermediate (B), itself a triangle which originated at the '98 low. The average of the A,C and E tops would be 90.95, the.395 re of the 96-98 swoon. The XAU would then collapse to below 30 as bullion heads for the 170-180 zone. One calc for the end of the XAU bear is 24.91, where the decline from the end of (B) would be.618 times the 96-98 bear.
There may be a problem with this POV, because E would exceed C's top of 89.11. I'm not sure if that is allowed in classic EW.
I find April 11th an interesting possibility for the 69.76 mark, as it is 55 t days from and inc the 1/24 high, 2*34 t days from and inc the 1/6 high, and 180 t from and inc the 7/26 low. Then a rally to 91, perhaps by May 19th (a 2*13 t day move).
It is most interesting to note that the span from the 96 top to the Oct'00 low is 4.713 yrs and adding this time to the 98 low yields May 18th, a Sunday. This time span is also almost exactly 3*.618 times as long as the time from the 96 top to the 98 low!
If the XAU then declines from the supposed 91 top in May, and takes the same 2.56 years as the 96-98 decline, it will bottom around December 10th, 2005. This is 3 weeks before the 12/31/05 date I posted for the end of the bullion bear market, so it would seem that a positive divergence of gold stocks against a final wash-out in bullion will occur.
Another clue to the possibility of the above is that the arithmetic trend line connecting the 1998 and 2000 lows hits 24.79 on 12/10/05.
One more bit and I'm done. (Just for fun)
The ratio of bullion to the XAU at the 1/24 top was about 4.4 to 1 (I forgot to bring the actual data and if it's way off, I'll amend this part). Anyway, IF we got an XAU of 24.8 with a bullion price of 175, the ratio becomes about 7.1 and 7.1/4.4 = 1.614! The 4.4 might occur later this year again if 91 XAU and 400 gold occur together.
Rock
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