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Mix-Ansicht- Sehr interessant (E): Why Do Shares Fall? - susi, 14.02.2003, 20:20
Sehr interessant (E): Why Do Shares Fall?
-->Vieleicht schon mal gepostet, trotzdem - von der Daily Reckoning Seite
Inhalt:
Verschiedene Fragebogenversendungen an an Institutionelle und 'Grosse' Investoren.
Frage immer 'Warum haben Sie in letzter Zeit gekauft/verkauft?'
Antworten immer (allergrößtenteils): 'Weil der Makrt gestiegen/gefallen war'
Tja, was soll man da sagen... wir vom Board wussten's ja schon immer, aber trotzdem schön zu lesen
freut sich susi
Kann ich nur jedem empfehlen zu lesen!
...ach und ĂĽberhaupt: Dank an alle Aktiven dieses Forums [img][/img]
Why Do Shares Fall?
"...Why do shares fall? According to Lars Tvede in The Psychology of Finance, people do not decide to sell based on concrete economic news or rumours; rather, they sell because they find that 'the market was beginning to drop'. On the other hand, consider what the FT’s Philip Coggan wrote at the end of last month in Time to Buy equities, '...one would not expect attractive equity-buying opportunities to occur when the news was good' - i.e. when share prices are rising. How do we combine this contradictory information?..."
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Bruce McWilliams
Shares fell for a record number of consecutive days over the last couple of weeks. (Please remember that this is only since the index was started in 1984 - the experience in the 1930s and early 1970s was far worse.) But it does bring to a head the question, why do shares fall?
US economist Robert J. Shiller investigated why shares sometimes fell sharply in 1986 right after Black Thursday and then again after the October 1987 global crash. After Black Thursday (September 11, 1986), Shiller sent out a questionnaire to 175 institutional investors and 124 large individual investors. He asked them,"What reasons to buy or sell did you have during the period?"
According to Lars Tvede in The Psychology of Finance, of the 113 replies Shiller received, only three referred to concrete economic news or rumours at all. People sold because"the market was beginning to drop".
For the second experiment, Shiller sent out 1,000 questionnaires and asked what news investors considered most important."Again," Tvede suggests,"it emerged that it was not economic and political news which made the greatest impression, but price movements." The previous day's or even the previous hour's price drops"had exerted a far greater influence on investors than any of the individual news items appearing in the media."
David Cust, CEO of Broadcastle, found the same thing when he surveyed some of his own investors who had sold their shares. After shares tumbled inexplicably last January 9, Cust grabbed the bull by the horns. He got a list of all shareholders who had sold on that day. While most of the names on the list were nominee accounts, so he could not know who the final holders were, he was able to reach six now-former Broadcastle investors. In response to the question"Why did you sell?" they all said,"Because I saw the price going down." Cust was flabbergasted.
On the other hand, consider what the FT's Philip Coggan wrote at the end of last month in Time to Buy equities,"...one would not expect attractive equity-buying opportunities to occur when the news was good. And, as of Thursday's close, after nine consecutive losing sessions, the UK equity market did look attractive...UK investors should be swallowing their disappointments and getting back into equities."
How do we combine this contradictory information?
The basic message is to stay tuned to the market. Like a snowball rolling down a hill, share falls build up their own momentum regardless of specific events. But then, one day, the collective unconscious will - and it is not one person, one analyst or even one market guru (though journalists will find one), shift the momentum to the positive.
If we stay invested in good small companies we will profit.
Editor of Red Hot Penny Shares, Bruce McWilliams is one of the canniest share tippers around. Making use of his extensive contacts and using his own systems, Bruce pinpoints shares that will survive and prosper. To quote the New York Times,"...Bruce McWilliams explains how investors of modest means can reap huge profits." Mr. McWilliams now lives in London. He previously held the position of Vice-President of Citibank and worked in the London, New York and Zurich markets. He is also the author of the best-seller Penny Stocks.
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