Interview mit Mr. Commodity Jim Rogers

verfasst von kingsolomon, 21.02.2003, 08:34

-->Guest Words by Jimmy Rogers
February 20, 2003
What do you think of the dollar after the big movement of the last few months?
[I have just written an article about the dollar on my web-stite (www.jimrogers.com) and I am bearish on the U.S. dollar. Short-term the dollar may go up, but long-term I?m very bearish on the U.S. dollar which can go down 20-30-40%. If there?s peace in the Middle East or the war is very short, the US dollar will go up for a while, but I would sell the US dollar on the strength.]
What do you think of the US 5% current account deficit?
[That it?s a disaster, it?s why I?d sell the dollar, which makes the dollar a very unsound currency.]
So you think that the adjustment will happen via a depreciating dollar. Don?t you?
[Yes. It?s not just a current account problem. I mean the U.S. is the world?s largest debtor by a factor of many times. A country can have a deficit in its balance of trade for a year or 2 or 10 years, but if it?s a huge debtor, then you have to stop sometime. And the US is a huge debtor nation as well as having a trade deficit.]
Do you see any other important reasons for a further depreciation of the dollar?
[Well, yes there?re other reasons. Any foreigners are now worried if they have their money in the US.- Their currency may be blocked or confiscated. I mean if you are an Italian and your name were Mohamed, even if you?d been in Italy for 150 years someone may block your account by accident. So many people are worried about that. And by the way if you live in Saudi Arabia and your name is Mohamed you are very worried about it. You may be extremely worried about having your account blocked. So many people may move their money out for that reason.]
What about commodities?
[I am very, very bullish on commodities. I started a commodity index fund on August 1 1998 and it is up 90% (www.rogersrawmaterials.com). The commodity?s bull market has been going on over 4 years and will go on for another 4, 5, 10 years. I am very, very, very bullish on commodities, more bullish on commodities than any thing in the world.]
Cay you list your reasons?
[Well, supply and demand. In the?80s and?90s there was a stop. Nobody built any offshore drilling?, or nobody opened a sugar plantation. There has been no new capacity for 20 years. But demand is continuing to grow. China is now the largest importer in the world, even larger than the United States. And inventories are very low for nearly every commodity. In the 80s there were big inventories because of the cold war and other reasons. So inventories are down, productivity capacity is flat or even declining, demand continues to grow. It?s very simple, it?s supply and demand. Is has happened many times in history and it?s happening again.]
Do you feel confident on this forecast?
[Extremely confident. In 1998, when I started the index fund, I felt the stock market was about to an end, and the bull market in commodities was beginning. Every time this has happened in the past the bull market has gone on for several years. This time will not be different.]
What about the western stock markets after three years of bear market?
[Well, if there?s peace or something good, there could be a big rally, but I?d sell that rally. It may be 10%, it may be 30%, I don?t know. But the bear market in western stock markets is not over.]
Why? What makes you think that?
[You know we had a huge bubble, and bubbles don?t get cleaned out after 3 or 4 years. The Dow Jones is only say 30% below its all time high. That?s not the way bubbles get cleaned out. The Japanese market has been going down for 13 years. That?s the way bubbles go. The stock market will go up and down for the next 5 or 10 years as the bubble works off. The bear market is not over. No bear market has ended when shares were 20 or 30 times earnings, and dividend yield at 1 or 2 per cent. Never in history.]
But in your experience, do you think that earnings could rebound much as many think or not?
[But even if earnings go up 50%, it is still an expensive stock market. Western stock markets are not cheap, and as I said manias never ended with high priced stocks.]
You mentioned that short-term, the stock market could rally. Why?
[Pessimism. If something goes better, then the stock market will go up, gold will go down, oil will go down, the dollar will go up, but these will be all temporary things. The Japanese stock market in the last 13 years has had 3 rallies of 50%, and yet the Japanese stock market is going down. You can have big, big rally in a bear market.]
You think that short-term the stock market may rally. Are you willing to bet on that idea or not?
[Yes, I have covered my shorts, I?m long, I?m expecting a rally sometime in the next few days, weeks. It may go up 10-20 or 30%.]
But if the rally does materialize you would sell short. Don?t you?
[Yes, yes, yes, I?ll sell short a lot.]

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• Interview mit Mr. Commodity Jim Rogers - kingsolomon, 21.02.2003, 08:34
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