Re: Falschgeldtrick

verfasst von CRASH_GURU, 02.03.2003, 13:31

-->Ich weiss nicht worauf Du hinaus willst Reinhard, aber hier ist ein Kommentar vosn S. Saville zu ABX' fantastischen Gewinnen:

Barrick Gold (ABX) is not one of our stock selections nor is it ever likely to be as long as it has a large hedge book, but its latest financial results (released last week) are worth commenting on.

ABX produced 5.7M ounces of gold in 2002 and made a profit of US$193M. The company forecast that 2003 production would be 5.4M ounces. However, as is usually the case with this company the most interesting aspect of the latest ABX results was the information that was disclosed about its hedge book. This information is particularly interesting because what Barrick does with its enormous hedge book can effect the entire gold industry.

As they have done every quarter for as long as anyone can remember, Barrick's management crowed last week about the fact that their forward sales program had allowed them to sell gold in the latest quarter at a price that was above the average spot price. They also confirmed that during the first several weeks of 2003 they had taken advantage of their ability to defer delivery into forward sales contracts and had, instead, sold 100% of their gold at the spot price. They did this because the spot price was higher than their forward sales price. This might seem like a logical thing to do, but it means that a liability has simply been pushed into the future. Furthermore, regardless of the current spot price it would only make sense for Barrick to defer delivery into forward sales contracts if they were confident that the spot price was going to be lower in the future than it is today. In other words, by their actions Barrick's management is saying that a gold price in the $350-$380 range is an aberration and that the price will fall back to $325 or lower.

At the end of 2002 Barrick's hedge book had a mark-to-market value of negative $639M. At the end of 2001 the mark-to-market value was positive $356M, so there was an unrealised loss of $995M in the hedge book during 2002. Deducting the reported earnings of $193M we get a net loss for 2002, including unrealised losses on derivatives, of $802M. So, during one of the best years for the gold price since the 1970s one of the world's largest gold mining companies lost $802M. If the gold price ends 2003 at $450 then Barrick will, at that time, have a hedge book with a mark-to-market value of negative $2.4B (assuming that all of this year's production is sold at the spot price). In this case it would have taken less than 2 years to wipe out all the gains achieved by the forward sales program over the past 15 years.

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gesamter Thread:

• Immer die gleichen Tricks - oder - wie Barrick mit Gold Falschgeld erzeugt - R.Deutsch, 02.03.2003, 09:34
  • Falschgeldtrick - R.Deutsch, 02.03.2003, 10:15
    • Re: Falschgeldtrick - - ELLI -, 02.03.2003, 10:22
      • RE: Falschgeldtrick - R.Deutsch, 02.03.2003, 11:35
      • Herr Deutsch, nur Fälscher und EZBs können Geld machen! - Frank, 02.03.2003, 13:24
    • Re: Falschgeldtrick - CRASH_GURU, 02.03.2003, 13:31
      • Einer von sieht hier etwas falsch - R.Deutsch, 02.03.2003, 13:53
        • Meine Ironie ist wohl in der Hektik nicht so richtig rübergekommen - CRASH_GURU, 02.03.2003, 14:30
          • Ironie - R.Deutsch, 02.03.2003, 18:03