SPX Fremdkommentar

verfasst von Jacques, 04.03.2003, 19:58

-->Price reference last newsletter 856)

Already in our last Technical Research Report (dated 18th February) we proclaimed the idea that the 13th February bottom would probably act as support for a bigger, interim consolidation-retracement phase.

At the same token we also said that the overall downtrend would continue to prevail clearly at least as long as 910 is not breached on weekly closing basis; within the general trend-interpretation we maintained our a bearish conclusion and today this view is basically unchanged.

Once again we would like to highlight the development of the On Balance Volume line (printed in “panel 3”) that emphasises the weakness of the price trend. Technical readings in the daily interval (like the one in “panel 2”) are rather neutral and have no real forecasting value for the near future. But pure price-trend-indicative elements like moving averages and trend- (resp. root-) lines are the evidence of a still dominating medium-term downtrend.

Conclusion:
We reckon with further upward corrective action over the coming few days. A potential retracement target window remains near 870-880 (as already announced in our last comment). We think that the downside pressure will again kick in near latter area from where a next downleg could approach last year’s bottom around 770. Only the above-discussed break of 910 (on weekly basis) would have a strongly stabilizing effect on the medium-term picture.

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• SPX Fremdkommentar - Jacques, 04.03.2003, 19:58