Kommentar z. kommenden 'neuen' und farbigen Dollar

verfasst von kingsolomon, 17.03.2003, 20:16

-->Stammt von Dave Morgan, Silver-investor.com.


Currency Changes Ahead?
 
Standard & Poor's Risk Solutions stated on December 17, 2002 that preliminary year-end default statistics for calendar year 2002 indicating that the dollar amount of debt defaulting will vault to a record $157.3 billion this year. This of course is debt default and it does verify that there are deflationary pressures in the economy.

 
The amount of defaults is significant, when compared to an honest money system. As of the end of last year, the total amount of silver bullion was estimated by CPM group as 400 million ounces. So, at a price of say five dollars per ounce this would be 2 Billion dollars.  This would be about one week's worth of defaults on a average basis. Perhaps easier to visualize is the balance of payments deficit of the U.S. is about 1.5 billion dollars per day!! So, two days worth of balance of trade"dollars" would buy up the entire silver supply. 

 
Standard & Poor's stated that default rates are declining globally after peaking at midyear. Telecoms and European companies have been hit hardest during 2002, but prospects look better for 2003 as default rates are expected to decline gradually throughout next year. We will take them at their word, and watch carefully.

The most important and under reported event for 2003 is the fact that another currency exchange is scheduled to take place. The public has been conditioned to accept these changes as normal and necessary. Few question the authority’s motives. The reason propagated is to stay ahead of counterfeiters. This is rather humorous, from the standpoint that credit card theft and computer theft is far higher than any paper counterfeits.


 
This new exchange will probably come under the guise of"currency exchange necessary to thwart terrorism", be careful, it is my opinion that this currency exchange may carry with it some classic consequences. First, the old currency will be considered to be"useless", secondly government officials may be assigned to"help" with the exchange. Perhaps, a few questions will be asked about the amount of cash you have and it's purpose. This of course will be given the spin, to route out the underground economy, fight the war on terrorism, and help the economy. In the past, the currency exchange has been very matter of fact and very few paid much attention. Be careful, this next exchange may come during a"crisis" of some type and be a whole new event.

 

The greatest motivation might just be to keep the system from collapsing. This is where a two tiered dollar system is enacted. There would be two types of currency, one that is used internal in the U.S. and one that would be used outside of U.S. borders. This would immediately put extreme pressure on all currency held outside the United States. What would cause such drastic action? Does everyone have faith in government to control and manage something as important as money? Government is not all powerful and it is not government’s job to look after you from cradle to grave.


 
When Fed Chairman Greenspan explained that gold might be considered as a last resort fix, what was your reaction? Did you plan that the U.S. would come back to a fair and honest monetary standard? Did you consider that perhaps the government will do whatever it feels is necessary to keep itself alive even at the expense of the U.S. citizen? The government might be planning on making external payments based upon gold for oil perhaps. However, if you think that the government would make any outstanding U.S. debt instrument payable in gold, think again! The U.S. is the biggest debtor in the world, and the government lawyers are working overtime to figure a way out of this mess. Government goal: spin it where it looks necessary keeps the system afloat and becomes politically accepted, while at the same time saving the government from an Argentina type problem.


 
Finally, this currency exchange might carry an official devaluation with it. This is where the official exchange rate changes drastically. It is for example, where ten old "dollars" are exchanged for one new one. This is maximum control because under this type of exchange people are forced to turn in the old currency with "help" and know that there is a short time to spend the old stuff.  Government Benefit: Huge velocity of money increase for a short time, but the downside is a fair amount of this money will move into gold and silver coinage.


 
And that is the crux of the problem. While capital will flow anywhere in the world where it is secure from violations of property rights, governments routinely violate property rights through taxation and inflation—two of the primary effects of IMF and World Bank regulations. Since IMF and World Bank loans inherently increase the levels of taxation and inflation, they institutionalize an environment in which private capital is less secure and in which wealth becomes depleted. Argentina, and a myriad of other countries dependent on IMF and World Bank funding, will always be at a disadvantage in attracting sorely needed investment capital as long as property rights are not protected.


 
By defaulting on one loan, Argentina may be acknowledging that no country ever became wealthy depending on public financing organizations from another hemisphere.  Such ideas can lead to economic sovereignty and wealth creation. Such ideas, if spread, can cause industrial revolutions. Few know that this country had a terrible money system (fiat) before the Bill of Rights and Constitution. Our founders instilled the principle of honest money. Today we have the privilege of buying real money but this may not be the case during currency controls.

 

If necessary the government might restrict capital (money instrument of any kind) from leaving the country. This has been done in the past and may be enacted during this next currency exchange. I do not consider this to be a high probability, but want to make our readers aware of the possibility.

 

The steady leakage of outflow from Mutual Funds is proving that cash is important and the average investor is getting worried. The house refinancing binge I feel is getting tapped out. The do not worry the government is much too powerful to ever let deflation get carried away only have to look to their master Lord Keynes for a solution.

Keynes suggested once 'to pay people to dig holes and them fill then up again'. We are in the end getting to the point where we need pump money into the consumers with more tax-cuts, but a time when we are diving into deficit in order to"save" the world. This is a formula that bears no logic, and is a formula for dire consequences.  What I feel people are not understanding, is that consumer spending is NOT a given! The concept that consumers will spend and will not start thinking otherwise has no basis in fact. The opposite is true; when people or business becomes fearful they begin to save.

It is merely a MINDSET of this generation, numerous talking head economists’ state the consumer will ALWAYS keep spending.  I see vast lack of common sense telling tales to the brainwashed Keynesian establishment. This present generation has flunked economics 101 miserably. The simple fact is this; the government is not all powerful. The government does and can make errors.  If foreign governments stop buying our U.S. debt and the FED is needed to come in and provide liquidity by buying and thus saving the bond market, would this not put added pressure on the system? Who would benefit by this influx of cash? Would this cash immediately be used to provide more consumer spending? Would this cash be saved and kept out of the system?

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gesamter Thread:

• Kommentar z. kommenden 'neuen' und farbigen Dollar - kingsolomon, 17.03.2003, 20:16
  • Was bedeutet das, mein Dollarkonto, außerhalb der US, wird abgewertet? - x Thomas, 17.03.2003, 21:20