Re: SARS Stephen Saville macht sich Gedanken...

verfasst von CRASH_GURU, 09.04.2003, 19:05

-->Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), also known as atypical pneumonia, has been big news throughout the world over the past several weeks. As most of our readers would be aware, we are based in Hong Kong. In Hong Kong, SARS is not only big news; it has come to dominate many aspects of life. For example:
a) All the schools in Hong Kong have been shut down and are likely to remain closed for at least one month.
b) Consumer spending has plummeted. For instance, dining out is one of the favourite pastimes of HK residents, but restaurants at which it is normally difficult to get a table are now almost empty.
c) Any business that relies on tourism, of which there are many in HK, has slowed to a virtual standstill.
d) Some companies have closed their offices temporarily and have asked their employees to work from home.
e) Absenteeism from places of work is running at a high rate because people are afraid to go to their offices due to the perceived risk of exposure to the disease at offices or on public transport
These and other dramatic effects have occurred even though only about 0.1% of the population has contracted the disease and, as at the time of writing, only 20 people had died. Obviously, it is the fear of catching the disease, more than the actual disease itself, which is having the biggest effect on most Hong Kong residents.
There is clearly going to be a sharp slump in corporate profits as a result of SARS, something the HK stock market has been busily discounting over the past 2 months. The stock market impact of SARS can be seen in the below chart showing the ratio of Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and the S&P500 Index (the line on the chart rises when the Hong Kong market is out-performing the US market). Notice that the Hong Kong market was rising relative to the US market early this year, but once SARS began to spread the HK market began to under-perform in a big way.

All the stock markets of the world are vulnerable to a SARS-related downturn, as are the prices of many commodities. For example, we were short-term bearish on the oil price until recently because it was clearly sporting a large 'war premium'. However, we have remained long-term bullish on oil and have expected that support in the low-to-mid 20s would hold (see chart below). This longer-term bullish view was, though, partly based on an expected increase in demand for oil from Asia, but if the SARS epidemic worsens then a sub-$20 oil price would become likely.

The stock price of Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), a major provider of services to the oil industry, might give us an early warning of impending trouble in the oil market. As the following chart shows, the Iraq-related plunge in the oil price was taken in stride by the stock market (it had already been discounted) with SLB remaining within the consolidation pattern that began last July. It has just reached the lower boundary of this pattern, so SLB is now either a screaming buy or it is about to plummet. In the absence of SARS we would be assuming the former, but SARS is a very large spanner that has just been thrown into the works. SLB is going to break out of its consolidation pattern over the next few weeks and the direction of that breakout will not only give us important clues regarding the likely performance of the oil price over the coming 3-6 months, but also the market's assessment of the SARS threat.

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gesamter Thread:

• SARS: Sollte man sich Gedanken machen... oder ist das d. Nebenkriegsschauplatz? - Mat72, 08.04.2003, 19:48
  • Re: SARS: Sollte man sich Gedanken machen... oder ist das d. Nebenkriegsschauplatz? - MC Muffin, 08.04.2003, 20:11
    • Ausbreitung ist nicht mit Grippe vergleichbar -. Also Nebenkriegschauplatz - tstg, 08.04.2003, 20:30
      • Re: Ausbreitung ist nicht mit Grippe vergleichbar -. Also Nebenkriegschauplatz - MC Muffin, 08.04.2003, 20:36
  • Re: SARS: Sollte man sich Gedanken machen... oder ist das d. Nebenkriegsschauplatz? - vladtepes, 08.04.2003, 20:52
  • Man sollte! - Pudelbirne, 09.04.2003, 02:03
  • Re: SARS Stephen Saville macht sich Gedanken... - CRASH_GURU, 09.04.2003, 19:05