Re: In den Nasdaq-Indizes finden sich mögliche"letzte Spitzen"

verfasst von JüKü, 16.10.2000, 21:56

> Hallo!
> Habe mir gerade überlegt, daß man auch die Nasdaq-Indizes (v.a. Nasdaq 100 und Nasdaq Composite) von heute mit dem Dow von damals vergleichen kann oder vielleicht sogar muß. Schließlich waren die"Neue Ära"-Werte damals im Dow und heute befinden sich diese"New Economy"-Werte hauptsächlich im Nasdaq. Was den Nasdaq Composite bzw. Nasdaq 100 Index angeht so haben beide eine Doppelspitze ausgebildet, wobei die Spitzen zeitlich sehr nahe beeinander liegen. Nach der Spitze folgte der erste(?) starke und schnell verlaufende Einbruch.
> Mich würden vor allem eure Meinungen über die Vergleichbarkeit des"heutigen" Nasdaq mit dem"damaligen" Dow interessieren.
> Grüße
> <font color="#0000FF"> Sascha </font>

Da könnte was dran sein; im Dow war damals kein Radiowert, und Autowerte kamen erst nach und nach dazu: http://averages.dowjones.com/ddmirror.html.

Bei dieser Gelegenheit stolperte ich über ein Zitat von der Seite"Dow Jones":

"A Lesson from the Crash of 1929
(How to play a market crash)

Since the crash of October 1987, and the ''minicrash'' of October 1989,
conventional wisdom has been to buy stocks after a big market decline.
But a look back at another October long ago shows the stock market
can be brutal even to investors who try to get in at bargain levels by
''buying on the dips.''

In 1987, investors certainly did get a big payoff for buying stocks right
after Oct. 19's heart-pounding 508-point plunge (a 22.6% drop) in the
Dow Jones Industrial Average. That one-day debacle turned out to be
the final downswing of a two-month bear market that pulled the average
down 36% to 1739. In less than two years, the Dow returned to its
pre-crash peak of 2722, en route to record closes above 6000 in its
centennial year, 1996, above 8000 in 1997, and topping 9000 in 1998.

In the mini-crash of 1989, it was the same story, only more so. The
industrial average fell 190 points in a single frightening day. But seven
months later, it was higher than before the scare. Indeed, after the Dow
plunged 554.26 points, to 7.2%. on Oct. 27, 1997, it took less than a
month to recover.

However, before people turn ''buying the dip'' into a secular religion, they
should consider the very different result after the Dow declined 23% in
the famous crash of Oct. 28 and 29, 1929.

The industrial average zig-zagged, heading south to 199 in November,
then north to nearly 300 the next spring. But then it began a long
sickening slide that saw it bottom at just 41 on July 8, 1932.

A bargain-hunter who bought on Nov. 30, 1929, and didn't sell in the
1930 rally, had to wait until July 1936 to show a profit, according to Ned
Davis Research Inc. in Venice, Fla. And that's assuming all stock
dividends were reinvested.

Looking at stock price alone, an investor who bought in 1929 had to wait
until 1954 to see the Dow industrials claw back to their October 1929
highs.

''Buying on the dips would be a great strategy,'' says Todd Jaycox of
Chicago consultants Ibbotson Associates Inc., ''if we only knew what
point on the dip was the lowest.''

Quelle: http://averages.dowjones.com/ddplay.html.

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gesamter Thread:

• JüKü-update - GG, 16.10.2000, 13:16
  • Re: JüKü-update - JüKü, 16.10.2000, 13:42
    • Re: JüKü-update - sumima, 16.10.2000, 14:11
      • Die letzte Spitze im Vergleich zu 1929 fehlt noch - Sascha, 16.10.2000, 20:12
        • Re: Die letzte Spitze im Vergleich zu 1929 fehlt noch - Toni, 16.10.2000, 20:23
          • Re: Die letzte Spitze im Vergleich zu 1929 fehlt noch - Oldy, 16.10.2000, 20:58
          • In den Nasdaq-Indizes finden sich mögliche"letzte Spitzen" - Sascha, 16.10.2000, 21:42
            • Re: In den Nasdaq-Indizes finden sich mögliche"letzte Spitzen" - JüKü, 16.10.2000, 21:56
              • Interessant! (owT) - Sascha, 16.10.2000, 23:59