Auch Du, mein Freund?

verfasst von fiede, 05.05.2000, 11:58

wer ist in Lage, einen Link auf einen bullishen Bericht zu nennen, von denen es 99% aller Berichte geben soll??

>05/04/2000 PM): We find ourselves in the midst of Crash-2K and all around us for as far as the eye can see, investors are sighing relief that the sell-off in April has subsided and a rally appears to be in progress. How wrong and disappointed they will be when the Wave 3 begins to come into clear focus. It will be something like novice campers walking through a foggy woods only to stumble across a large but strange shadow. It is only upon a closer examination that they see it is a large Grizzly Bear standing over them. The feeble words"Oh! Sh!t" probably comes to mind as they scramble to escape. This stock market will be very similar. The big difference is that most investors will be pressed face-to-face with the nasty (stock market) bear, but instead of turning and running, they'll freeze in their tracks hoping the bear will wander away on its own... much to their chagrin, the bear presses even closer. There appears to be no escape. Even if a White Knight makes an entrance on to the scene to battle the bear, it (Crash Protection Team) offers the bear little more than a temporary annoyance.
>The Elliott Wave view of the stock market, particularly the DJIA, offers few alternate outlooks. The bullish view will see a sell-off soon that should carry the DJIA down to the 9400 area before a final rally to new highs... then followed by a large and long-term bear market. Or the bearish view in which the bear market began where the bull market ended... January 14, 2000 and the long-term bear market has only just begun. An initial sell-off followed by a rally above 11424 strengthens the bullish outlook, and a move above 11750 confirms it. If the anticipated sell-off becomes much more extreme, then the bear has the control.
>Please remember that the 1929 DJIA Wave 1 had a sell-off that amounted to an overall correction of -17%. The 2000 DJIA Wave 1 also had a sell-off with an overall correction of -17%. While the 1929 DJIA experienced a relief rally (Wave 2) that retraced +58% of Wave 1, the 2000 relief rally has retraced +83% -- do not assume that the hex of comparing 1929 to 2000 has been broken simply because the retracements do not also match. The mere fact that the 2000 retracement has not exceeded the previous all time high (DJIA 11750) is sufficient to keep this outlook active. In fact, when comparing comparable wave structures to the 1987 crash and the 1998 mini-crash,"Wave 2" retraced +70% and +62%, respectively.
>Well, here is another 1929 comparison to ponder: Within the big 1929 Wave 3 down, there were 5 smaller waves."Wave 1 of 3" lasted 6 trading days and had a length that was 67% of the length of the larger Wave 1. In 2000, Wave 1 had a length of (11750-9732=2018) and"Wave 1 of 3" had a length of (11424-10202=1222) points, which is 61%.
>In 1929, the"Wave 2 of 3" retraced 42% of"Wave 1 of 3". The comparable 2000"Wave 2 of 3" has retraced 77% of"Wave 1 of 3". Ok, so I admit that it is strange that the larger 2000 Wave 2 retraced 25% more than Wave 1, and"Wave 2 of 3" retraced 25% more then"Wave 1 of 3". There seems to be an odd consistency to the retracements. Perhaps this is due to the widespread current use of stock index derivatives such as futures and options.
>When comparing comparable wave structures to the 1987 crash and the 1998 mini-crash,"Wave 2 of 3" retraced +41% and +41%, respectively.
>If we are alligning so well to 1929, then what does this road map forecast for us? The"Wave 3 of 3" appears to already be in-progress. In 1929, the"Wave 3 of 3" was 270% of the length of"Wave 1 of 3" and 184% of the length of Wave 1. This respectively, correlates to forecasted bottoms for"Wave 3 of 3" to (1222 X 2.7=3400, 11135-3400=7735) and (2018 X 1.84=3713, 11424-3713=7711). Therefore, we should roughly expect the DJIA to trade down to the 7735 to 7711 area. In 1929, this drop lasted only 5 days -- for 2000 we have already used up 7 trading days and have not yet dropped below the April 14 lows -- perhaps this should be interpretted to mean that a crashing sell-off may begin immediately... we're overdue!
>Only a move above 11424 would negate this outlook, and a move above 11750 would turn bullish. A move below 10202 would be dangerous, and a move below 9732 would be disasterous.
>When comparing comparable wave structures to the 1987 crash and the 1998 mini-crash: compared to the length of"Wave 1 of 3","Wave 3 of 3" extended 370% and 260%, respectively.
>Please keep in mind that"Wave 3 of 3" might very well be a very dramatic sell-off, waves"4 of 3" and"5 of 3" are likely to offer even more excitement -- volatility to the max!
>While it is a bit early to lay down the correlations for the next 2 waves, the following is a brief outlook. In 1929, the"Wave 4 of 3" retraced the length of"Wave 3 of 3" by +57% in only 2 trading days. In addition, this 4th wave also retraced the combined length of"Waves 1,2,3 of 3" by +47%. If we assume that the 2000"Wave 3 of 3" will trade down to 7740, the"Wave 4 of 3" should rally to DJIA 9675 and 9471, respectively.
>When comparing comparable wave structures to the 1987 crash and the 1998 mini-crash: compared to the length of"Wave 3 of 3","Wave 4 of 3" retraced +46% and +50%, respectively. Compared to the overall length of"Waves 1,2,3 of 3","Wave 4 of 3" retraced +40% and +40%, respectively.
>Then the 5th wave completes the"crash wave". In 1929, the length of this wave was 195% of the length of"Wave 1 of 3" and 71% of the length of"Wave 3 of 3". Assuming our correlation outlook for waves 3 and 4 play out using the least bearish estimates (ie: wave 3 to 7740, wave 4 rally to 9675), then a"Wave 5 of 3" should drop down to (1222 X 1.95=2383, 9675-2383=7292) and (3400 X.71=2414, 9675-2414=7261), the more bearish lows for"Wave 3 of 3" (ie: 9471) would place this low at 7088 and 7057, respectively. Overall, this would represent corrections of -38% to -40%.
>When comparing comparable wave structures to the 1987 crash and the 1998 mini-crash: compared to the length of"Wave 1 of 3","Wave 5 of 3" extended 198% and 200%, respectively. Compared to the length of"Wave 3 of 3","Wave 5 of 3" extended 53% and 62%, respectively.
>And one more correlation to consider: In 1929, of the larger waves, the whole"Wave 3" was 250% of the length of"Wave 1". Since the 2000"Wave 1" was 2018 points, another correlation forecast would project the"Wave 3" low around (2018 X 2.5=5045, 11424-5045=6379). This represents an overall correction of -46%.
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gesamter Thread:

• Unser AMERIKANISCHER FREUND ist sich des CRASHES schon recht sicher mT - ANDI, 05.05.2000, 11:48
  • Auch Du, mein Freund? - fiede, 05.05.2000, 11:58
    • z. B."Dow 36.000" - JüKü, 05.05.2000, 12:06
  • Aus welcher genauen Quelle stammt die Analyse? - WebDiver, 05.05.2000, 17:19