Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- US Immobilien KGV jetzt bei 17,4 ohne Wachstumsaussichten... - nasdaq, 06.05.2003, 16:13
US Immobilien KGV jetzt bei 17,4 ohne Wachstumsaussichten...
-->Das macht eine Rendite von gerade einmal 5,7 %. Abzüglich der Abschreibungen und Instandsetzungsaufwendungen kommt man vielleicht auf eine Nettorendite von maximal 4 %. Schauen wir mal wie lange das noch gut geht. Die Gefahr, dass die Preise um 30-40 % fallen ist sehr groß. Das Eigenkapital liegt im Durchschnitt bei 35 %... so long
Bill Lussenheide wrote:
Residential real estate across the country has enjoyed a tremendous Bull Run since the beginnings of the Bear Market in the US stock market in 2000. In fact it can be argued that the wave of refinances, and home buying has been the chief factor in not having the US economy slip into a deflationary spiral similar to the 1930s.
However, even the best parties come to an end, and it is likely that the real estate market has seen its better days.
Just as the stock market has a gauge for measuring the value of companies based upon the ratio of price to earnings, one can view real estate with the same perspective. We can call this the Price to Rent Ratio. Just like the Nasdaq, which went into unchartered waters in the late 1990's, real estate has now entered into never before seen levels of valuation.
At the top of the real estate market in 1989 the ratio of average monthly mortgage versus average monthly rent was 1.33, well above the long term average of 1.26. This resulted in a multi year depressed real estate market until the middle of the 1990s. Currently the ratio is approaching an extreme 1.45 reading and is in high relativity versus its historic baseline. Renters are actually getting the most house for the buck ever these days!
What will be the starting catalyst of a real estate bear market? When interest rates finally start moving back up, buyer beware and keep your powder dry.
Thread gesperrtgesamter Thread:
