Re: Statistik des Grauens - Crash Guru, foreeveryoung vs. dottore u. Ketzer

verfasst von CRASH_GURU, 14.05.2003, 22:17

-->>Bloß, von der Wirklichkeitsbeschreibung auf Dummgelabere zu schließen, ist schon hammermäßig.
>Frei nach Almoehi (wo isser eigentlich?), nix für ungut.
>Beste Grüße vom Baldur, Katastrophenwillie Nr. 2 (Nr. 1 war mein Vater)

Baldur,
vielleicht sollte ich mal meine Position atwas verdeutlichen:
Ich halte es fuer sehr wahrscheinlich, daß das globale Finanzsystem zusammenbricht, aber es wird nicht morgen passieren. Ich halte es auch fuer sehr wahrscheinlich daß wir zumindest in den USA ein hyperinflationaere Entwicklung bekommen, aber es wird nicht morgen passieren. Das Wort Dummgelabere gehoert zumindest in Chaträumen nicht zu meinem Sprachschatz, aber es waere vielleicht in Anbetracht der ewigen Hiweisen auf Japan und dass es in D. genauso kommen wird gar nicht mal uebertrieben.

Ich analysiere fast nur die Situation in USA und meine Aussagen soweit diese die Zukunft betreffen gelten auch nur fuer die USA.
Ich bin der Auffassung, daß niemand die Zukunft voraussagen kann. Bei dottore hat sich das ja schon erwiesen. Wie im richtigen Leben sollte man auch als Spekulant im Moment leben und der Markt ist der beste Prophet. An den 20 Jahren Katastrophengenöle haben die Schwarzmaler gut verdient, aber nicht unbedingt deren Anhänger.
Der Markt sieht z.Z. keinen Staatsbankrott und keine Inflation. Ich bin ziemlich sicher, daß der Wähler, wer auch immer das sein wird, nach dem Zusammenbruch wieder ein Papiergeld haben will. Frei nach Einstein - nur die menschliche Dummheit ist grenzenlos...

Hierzu noch ein kleiner Beitrag der meine Erwartungen sehr gut beschreibt, aber ich weiß natuerlich, daß alles ganz anders kommen kann:

No Illusions

Hans Schicht

Do not make yourselves illusions that, after the coming financial system collapse, world leaders will quickly come together to re-establish financial and monetary order.

Firstly, after the cancerous character of the present financial system will have surfaced and been recognized as such, mutual mistrust will be so intense, that for a long time to come all efforts to get to a new global financial system will end in failure.

Secondly, there is the vital question of where the real money, demanded for a new monetary base, can be found, after all the paper has gone with the wind and all gold and silver will have disappeared under the table. There will be no new reserve currency replacing the dollar. There just won't be any more reserve currency. No gold nor silver will be found, be available or be offered to resurrect a collapsed financial system or serve as international bench mark.

And in third place, political developments will soon overshadow everything else under the sun. The ominous political game being played out in the Middle East, where all the Great Powers want to have a finger in the pie, will only be the early beginning of a consequent dramatic long chain of events to follow. With the USA tied down in the Middle East and not equipped to act on more than one front at the same time, one conflict zone after the other might ignite and lead to a total Armageddon. With no real leaders left in this world, we are in the hands of political and financial opportunists, blind to the fatal consequences their actions and totally incapable of redressing the situation.

It will be lost time to guesstimate any value for gold, basing oneself on the eventual future monetary needs after the dust settles, as the dust is not going to settle for many years. Once the Pandora Box of politics, religion and finance will have been opened, chaos will reign supreme. With it, gold is destined to gyrate violently like a whimsy play ball in the hands of more and more diverging interests. It will be each for his own, people and nations. Free trade and free floating currencies have seen their final days. The present financial order is doomed. Financial and commercial controls will be in. Barter trade will be back. With trust gone, credit will be gone. Countries will retreat behind their borders. Investments at home will be promoted. Cash crops for export will make way for production for local consumption. Forget abo, but free world trade, the IMF the World Bank and the World Trade Organisation. After the financial collapse the world is going to shrink back int! or national ism and local interests.

The demise of the dollar will mean the end of floating fiat currencies. And it will also mean the demise of the present credit banking system built around it.

Once governments and people will find out that they have been taken to the cleaner and the kitty is empty, there will be a worldwide out-cry to nationalize all banks and financial institutions. Newly elected national socialist governments will impose on the bankers, while making a still a greater mess of financial affairs than ever.

First the gold and silver were currency, then fiat money corrupted its way in and soon dictat money directly issued and controlled by the State will take over. Gold and silver will disappear underground or go off-shore. And forthwith all money or what will be called money will be allocated and controlled as politics dictates.

Don't make yourselves illusions that a hoard of precious metals will help you making a better living during dictat money times. Dictat money stands for totally controlled fiat money. It will probably be issued in the form of a single plastic debt card allocated per person by the State. You will have to accept it and use it. Any other means of exchange will be unpatriotic and carry the death penalty. During the Nazi Germany there was not a soul to be found who dared to offer gold in exchange for goods or services or to tell anybody that he had gold stacked away. The Nazis had their Deviezen Schutz Comando (Foreign Exchange Protection Command) empowered to enforce fiscal discipline on every body by any means. Under Stalin the Kulaks, the small Russian farmers, who were accustomed to save in gold and settle their affairs in gold since generations, were raided, tortured and thousands killed by the GPU till they rendered their little savings. How many people today do you think will have the guts to use their hoarded gold or silver in gray market transactions when the penalty might be death?

If you wish to keep your freedom, then do not tell anybody what and how you save. Big Brother has ears, and so have many criminals listening in on the Internet forums, making notes of who brags about his precious metal hoard. The IRS, the FED and Home Security are all known visitors to the precious metal forums. Today they might be taking notes to keep for future reference. Easy for these agencies to find out who is behind each e-mail address or web-entry. And so it will be for the criminals in your neighborhood or eventual hackers.

Play it safe! Now there is still time to use your fiat moneys to buy precious metals in total anonymity. With the coming dictat money it will become impossible as every cent you spend is going to be controlled. And for your ultimate liberty, do keep a little part of it locked away or buried in a small country or on a little island just over the border.

Without a globally free movement of gold and silver, there won't be any longer world wide valid gold quotations. Different prices will be quoted in different countries, if!

Don't make yourself illusions either that after fiat money, the dictat money will be stable money without inflation. The government wants to see paper profits so it can tax you.

Inflation is like a whip leashing the people to work harder just to stay on the same place like Alice in fiat-land. It is not true, as stated in several essays, that deflation has necessarily to follow inflation. I have lived many years in Latin countries and never seen deflation. It was always one inflationary period ebbing away into the next inflationary period, sometime more sometimes less, but always inflation!

Faites vos jeux, rien ne va plus!



Hans Schicht
27 February 2003

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