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Mix-Ansicht- Donnerstag: Aden ist da................................... - Emerald, 15.05.2003, 06:24
Donnerstag: Aden ist da...................................
-->hier wieder einmal der Wochen-Bericht der Aden-Sisters:
Dieses mal wieder Interessantes für Viele von Euch................
Bond prices are soaring as the 10 and 30 year yields fell to 45 year lows today. The eight week rise is gaining steam as deflationary pressures take hold. U.S. import prices posted a record drop today in the largest one-month drop in history while retail sales were also weak. T-Bills also fell to a new low today. We now recommend buying more over 10 year U.S. government bonds or the Ishares Tr fund (TLT-Amex) by raising your bond position to 20% of your portfolio (up from 15%). Bonds are now very strong if the yields stay in new 45 year low territory below 4.61% on the 30 year and 3.55% on the 10 year. Bonds will remain strong nonetheless with the yields below 4.75% on the 30 year and 3.80% on the 10 year.
Gold reached a nine week high today as a renewed rise since April 7, we call an A rise, remains on course. Gold is strong above $340 and it's poised to advance another month or two. It could rise to test the February highs. Silver closed at a 14 week high today. It's approaching its February highs and if it closes above $4.90, it could test the 2002 high near $5.10. Gold shares are also rising. HUI and XAU reached 10-13 week highs on Monday and while still lagging somewhat, they're strong above 129 HUI and 70 XAU. The strongest gold shares are NEM, GLG and GG. We are adding HL, PDG and ABX to our buy list.
Platinum, copper and oil are also rising and are strong above: $635, $28.30 and $.7400, respectively.
The U.S. dollar index remains weak, closing at another low this week and it's approaching the 1998 low near 92. The dollar index is very weak below 98 and while it's near an oversold area, it could still decline further in the current leg down. The euro is very strong above 1.11 as are the others above:.6250 for the Aust dollar,.5600 for the Kiwi dollar,.7000 for the Canadian dollar and.7400 for the Swiss franc. Attractive interest rates compared to U.S. rates are a key factor. We have our currency position split between CDs and bonds and since you have the best of two worlds, a rising currency with rising bonds, we are keeping our U.S. bond position lower than our foreign currency position. Continue to buy and keep the strongest currencies as well as ICPHX, GIM and FCO. We also like FAX.
The stock market's nine week rise is running into resistance. It's still strong with the Dow Jones Industrials above 8500 and Nasdaq above 1470, but with bonds soaring on deflationary pressures, the rise may not last too much longer, especially with the dollar weak. So far, the rise has lasted longer than any other one since the rise following 9/11 and it could still go higher. But with the S&P 500 below 970 and the Dow still below its August, November and January peaks, the rise to date still has to prove itself. Keep an eye on Monday's Dow high at 8726 and the S&P high at 945; if these levels are broken on a close the rise still has life. If you have DIA, QQQ or SOXX, keep close stops on your positions.
The world stock markets have been rising with the U.S. market, but the rises are within a major downtrend. Stay out.
The May issue is being mailed tomorrow. The E-mails and faxes were already sent.
Warm wishes and until next week, Pamela and Mary Anne Aden
Emerald.
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