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Mix-Ansicht- Greenscam: Ã-konomie nimmt Fahrt auf, deswegen werden wir Zinsen senkenIch - kingsolomon, 04.06.2003, 17:49
Greenscam: Ã-konomie nimmt Fahrt auf, deswegen werden wir Zinsen senkenIch
-->ich komme immer mehr zu der Ãœberzeugung, dass sein John Law sein grosses
Vorbild ist, natürlich jetzt mit zusätzlicher Rückendeckung durch die
Lügenbeutel Rummsfeld usw.
By DAVID LEONHARDT
New York Times
WASHINGTON, June 3 — Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said today that the economy had stopped deteriorating last month and that he saw"the makings of a turnaround."
He also said that inflation was"not something of significance for the Federal Reserve to be concerned about" now, causing investors to believe that the Fed is willing to bolster the economy by cutting short-term interest rates even further when it meets later this month.
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Mr. Greenspan's remarks, made by satellite to a bankers' conference in Berlin, was the clearest version yet of a carefully scripted message he has been delivering over the last month. His comments have contributed to the unusual combination of increases in both stock and bond prices, making an economic rebound more probable.
The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index rose 4.56 points, or 0.5 percent, to 971.56 today and is 4.5 percent higher than it was one month ago. The price of 10-year Treasury notes also rose, causing the interest rate on them to decline, to 3.33 percent. When investors become hopeful about the economy, they typically sell bonds, which are a more conservative investment than stocks.
By emphasizing the positive signs he has seen, like a fall in both energy and finance costs, Mr. Greenspan has contributed to the recent rise in confidence among consumers, executives and stock investors. He said today that there had recently been"a dramatic reversal in all of the various different elements" that had been harming the economy early this year.
But by noting that the Fed remains concerned about deflation, a sustained decline in prices that can cripple an economy, Mr. Greenspan has signaled to bond investors that interest rates will probably remain low for months and could even fall further. Investors have responded by bringing down long-term interest rates, which determine the cost of mortgages and many other loans, even as they have bid up stocks.
"He's separated out the two groups on Wall Street and he has played them both off each other," said Drew T. Matus, an economist at Lehman Brothers.
Mr. Greenspan emphasized today that the evidence of a recovery remained too scant for him to be confident of what would happen next."There is some indication of return" to faster growth, he told the bankers,"but it is at this stage not by any means clear."
He spent much of his opening remarks, which were part of a panel of central bankers, listing reasons to be optimistic, including a pickup in consumer confidence and the additional money that the recently signed tax cut will give many households. Most important, he said, stocks have risen and interest rates have fallen on junk bonds, which are issued by companies whose prospects investors consider questionable.
He added that the change in these credit markets suggested"a fairly marked turnaround" for the economy.
After falling into recession in March 2001, the economy began growing again late that year. So far, though, the growth has been too weak for companies to add workers, and the economy has lost more than two millions jobs since early 2001 while wages have stopped growing more quickly than inflation for many workers.
In recent weeks, Mr. Greenspan has said that he expects growth to accelerate once the uncertainty over the war in Iraq passes. His remarks today were the first time he has publicly said that he has begun to see evidence of actual improvement.
For it to continue, Mr. Greenspan said, both the weekly and monthly economic data released by the government and private groups"have got to start to move in a positive direction fairly quickly."
Automakers, whose sales Fed officials follow closely, reported today that cars and trucks sold at an annual rate of 16.1 million vehicles in May. That was better than the 15.7 million rate a year earlier but a marked slowdown from sales at the end of 2002.
Mr. Greenspan also continued to explain the radical change in the Fed's stance toward inflation. After decades of fighting aggressively to keep prices from rising rapidly, the Fed has become worried that the long economic slump could cause prices to begin declining, raising the effective cost of debts as each dollar became more valuable and causing consumers to cut spending in anticipation of future bargains.
Today, Mr. Greenspan called the risk of deflation very small but said that its damage could be severe if it took hold. Because inflation appears so unlikely in coming months, the Fed remains willing to take out"insurance against economic weakness," he said.
Investors seemed to interpret his comments as openness to a new reduction in the Fed's rate on overnight loans between banks, which is now 1.25 percent. The rate on a futures contract based on the benchmark fell today to 1.05 percent. That level suggests either that investors believe strongly that the Fed will cut the rate by a quarter-point or that they think there is a one in two chance that the rate will fall by a half-point.
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