Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Was Hedgefondsmanager so denken... - Sterntaler, 05.06.2003, 08:48
Was Hedgefondsmanager so denken...
-->verfolge die aussagen schon einige jahre. war bis vor einigen monaten noch ein BÄR, seit einiger zeit aber ein erklärter Buy-the-Dips-Bulle!!!
Auch er ist ĂĽberzeugt, dass jetzt jederzeit eine kleine korrektur kommen kann, aber nicht muss, da noch viele shortminded sind...
mfg sterntaler
FEARLESS SHORT-TERM MARKET FORECAST: It's Time To Believe -- By
Tobin Smith
We said in March that Dow 7,500 was the key entry point for a
post-war rally that we would look to sell at the end of May.
Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.
On May 7, we told you that"volume was truth" and the market action
in response to the incredible turnaround in 2004 economic potential
set the stage for a full 50% recovery of the January '02 to October
'02 decline -- i.e. an even 1,600 on the Nasdaq. The complete
turnaround in future business fundamentals told us a REAL change in
the business cycle was at hand, and it was going to be a completely
different ballgame for stocks.
We're here.
We also said the clear support for the indexes at Dow 8,400-8,450,
S&P 500 935-940 and Nasdaq 1,450-1,460 was a roadmap for making
money in this transformed market as the short sellers would
capitulate. I noted that the best strategy was to"buy the dips"
with authority as the short sellers would blow up. Well, that's
happened, too.
The non-believing"fade the rally" trade by hedge funds has exploded
like a trick cigar. Shorting the technical resistance in the indexes
-- the magic bean for billion-dollar short selling funds during ALL
the previous rallies -- is gone. These blown-up trades have now put
many obstinate hedge fund managers farther behind the performance
eight ball, which makes them buyers, not sellers, of stocks.
So today, as we begin to celebrate ChangeWave Research's third
birthday as a part of Phillips Publishing, we have come about as
full circle from our January 2001"Sell Your Tech and Buy Our REITs"
advice and"Techoholic Healings" as you can come.
Now the question is"when does the healthy, necessary correction
come to this historic baby bull market move?"
My answer is definitely"not yet." It looks like we go till July
before the animal spirits of this bull run out of gas and give the
market its much-needed rest into a final year-end rally to Dow
10,000, Nasdaq 2,000 and S&P 500 1,000.
WORDS FOR THOSE ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
There are many reasons for this analysis, and I will share ALL of
them with our thousands of paying subscribers, traders and
institutional clients.
No offense to our WaveWatchers, but these thousands and thousands of
self-directed investors are finding unique VALUE in our research and
advice that make this bold and brash experiment we call ChangeWave
Investing possible.
Frankly, it is because of people like you making more money than
they ever dreamed possible in the stock market that we have been
able to successful launch and build a viable, superior alternative
to the now proven corrupt and forever conflicted Wall Street
research complex.
To those of you who have chosen to stay on the outside looking in on
our groundbreaking, 4,000-member (and growing) ChangeWave Alliance
intelligence gathering network and expert analysis, I can share the
following observations:
* Yes, we are in a momentum-driven market phase that will end and
correct when the higher highs and higher lows of the advance/decline
line rolls over. As of today, we are not even close.
* Our latest proprietary research into second-quarter demand for IT
spending has revealed the greatest positive surprise in the history
of our surveys.
* The stocks we are holding and buying now are the NEW leaders of
the 21st century economy. And they will continue to be attractively
valued in the context of 3% GDP growth in 2004, 2.25% 10-year
Treasury bonds, 1.5% inflation and 2.5% productivity growth.
* We have stocks up 30%, 50% and even more than 70% from our
purchase prices on our growth stock buy lists. I expect that by the
end of this baby bull market in 2004 or 2005 our average growth
stock will have appreciated 250%-300% from today.
* I am confident of this because the new leaders of the first REAL
economic expansion of the 21st century have secular growth rates
300%-1,000% HIGHER than the average 3% growth rate of this new
expansion phase of the post-bubble business cycle.
Over the next month I'm going to do my best to convince you that it
is not too late for you to get in on this new bull market and ride
it for all it's worth. I'm going to make this effort because I know
that most of you are still scarred and battered from the bear
market. I know many of you ignored our proprietary research on the
historic contraction in IT demand that lead to our"sell tech"
advice in 2001 and 2002, and rode so much of your financial assets
all the way down.
Tobin Smith
Thread gesperrtgesamter Thread:
