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Mix-Ansicht- Good Morning: It's Aden-Time for you.... - Emerald, 05.06.2003, 06:46
- Re: Good Morning: It's Aden-Time for you.... Eine FRAGE zu Aden S. - CRASH_GURU, 05.06.2003, 08:49
Re: Good Morning: It's Aden-Time for you.... Eine FRAGE zu Aden S.
-->Habe in RR'S chat room einen Beitrga gelesen, wonach die Aden's eine katastrophale Fehlerquote bei ihren Prognosen in der Vergangenheit hatten. Kann das jemand bestätigen / nicht b.?
gruss
cg
.6.2003: 06.45h
> Stocks continue to advance in their now 12 week rise. The Dow closed near the August high today while most of the indices closed at eleven or twelve month highs. Clearly, this rise has been the best since the post 9-11 rise when stocks climbed for 25 weeks. If the Dow now closes above 9053, it could rise to the halfway level of the bear market at 9504. This would be a decent rise from today's levels, but it wouldn't change the primary bearish picture. If you're trading the market, keep your positions unless the Dow closes below 8750. Breadth is strong and the rise could last a while longer. Nasdaq is strong above 1560 as is Transportations above 2460. But be cautious because the medium term indicator is approaching an overbought level.
> Mexico closed at a one year high today while Germany is at the January highs. The world equity markets are moving with the U.S. market and will continue to rise if Wall Street does.
> Gold's 'A' rise of the last two months looks like it's over. If it stays below the May 21 high at $372.20 (basis June) and closes below $360, a B decline will begin and it could take gold to the $345 level. Keep in mind, B declines usually last 7-11 weeks and they tend to be moderate (unlike D declines). This means we could see weakness until July or possibly August, depending if the A rise is truly over. If gold stays above $345 it will be very firm, but even if it declines to $330 the bull market will still be fine. Gold shares are holding firm as XAU and HUI are strong above 72 and 137, respectively. They have room to rise further before they're overbought, therefore, if they close above the May 21 high at 75.58 and 143.37, the rise will continue, which means the A rise may not be over yet. NEM broke out to an almost one year high today and it's clearly the strongest. All new positions should be in Newmont (NEM). As we said last week, sell the weaker gold shares and wait to buy new positions at the end of the B decline. Platinum shot up; it's strong above $640. Silver is weak below $4.60; it could go to $4.40. Oil is firm above $28.75, but it must close above $31 for a full renewed rise to begin.
> Bonds remain strong as the 10 year yield closed at another new low today. Bonds are overbought short-term, but as long as the yields stay below 4.48% on the 30 year and 3.48% on the 10 year, bonds will remain very strong. Keep your positions as well as TLT.
>
> The U.S. dollar is stabilizing in a short-term oversold area. This means the dollar could rise while the currencies take a breather from their strong run up. If the dollar index now stays above its May 27 low at 92.81 basis June, and rises and stays above 94.50, it could rise to possibly the 98 level and still be weak. The euro and Swiss franc are starting to come down from the highs. The ECB is expected to lower rates tomorrow and if they do, the euro and SF will likely begin a downward correction. If the euro closes below 1.16, it could decline to 1.12 and still be strong. This would be a good buy area. If the Swiss franc now stays below.7650, it could decline to.7400. The Australian dollar reached another new high today and it's very strong above.6500. Likewise for the Canadian dollar above.7225 and the New Zealand dollar above.5740. Keep your positions. As we said last week, short-term traders may want to take some profits. (Not all!)
>Next week's update will be sent on Thursday June 12 instead of on the regular Wednesday due to a conference in Vancouver. The June issue will be e-mailed and faxed on Friday June 6, and mailed early next week.
>Warm wishes and until next week, Pamela and Mary Anne Aden
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