und jetzt noch in Englisch:

verfasst von Emerald, 05.06.2003, 22:21

-->Outlook upon the 3rd Quarter of 2003

What's the Present Position of the Economic Cycle?

Being this new century's most important political event on worldwide scale, the war against Saddam's Iraq was won in just a little over one month. The necessity of and the motives for this military campaign will be the subject of heated debates and arguments during many years to come.

As we mentioned already in our report of 7 September 2001, the Middle East apparently deteriorates into the main theatre of Americans' oil bargains and disputes. Serving as the world economy's chief lubricant, petroleum has once again achieved the status of states-men's foremost executive task, inevitably entailing far-reaching effects on the monetary and financial policy of the superpower U.S.A.

As of now, the fiscal balance of the U.S. will remain deeply in the red. The costs of the war are burdened on the American taxpayers, because this time it will hardly be possible - or only to a negligible extent - to have NATO countries or other Allies assume a share of expendi-tures. In the foreseeable future, the reconstruction of Iraq will absorb a multiple of the revenues earned with oil. Otherwise expressed: in this political puzzle, we will witness the beginning of a strategic development likely to bring about the Americanization of half a dozen Middle Eastern countries.

Over the long term, this speculative design might yield economic benefits to the Americans.
Should President Bush's government succeed in merging Saudi-Arabia, Iran and Syria, too, in the American sphere of influence (and the swift victory over Iraq traumatized the govern-ments of these states), the initial financial losses suffered by the U.S. might comparatively soon turn into substantial gains

Therefore, the periods of progressing depression of our days will, in the foreseeable future, probably be followed by brighter prospects so that an economic upswing within three or four years is a distinct possibility. As soon as we'll get once again a clear picture of the overall situation, mankind will regain confidence and trust, while engaging in planning for the future. The prerequisites for such a development consist in re-establishing mutual understanding of and resuming cooperation with the world's other economic powers: China, Japan, Russia and Europe.

Since the present crisis affects both the structure of our societal system and its meaning-fulness, everybody will have to face thorough challenges and adjust to drastic changes. In this respect, the options offered by the U.S. will probably once again be the only viable ones. Within the territory of Euroland, the likelihood of general strikes paralyzing many countries will cause worries and evoke dramatic memories of the 1930s. Precisely on the strength of these memories, Europeans might realize that their excessively cherished social-security safety nets might turn out to be true stumbling blocks, setting them at a disadvantage with respect to the U.S., China and Russia.

Based on this analysis we feel even now convinced that the exchange rate of the U.S. Dollar will bottom out in a comparatively near future, whereas consequently the Euro, now preferred everywhere, will be reassessed as being definitely overvalued. Irrespective of the rather unfavourable picture presented now by the American foreign trade and the budget, we feel confident that the U.S. will again win back the status of the Number One Nation, preferred on worldwide level.

Zug, 2 June 2003

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• und jetzt noch in Englisch: - Emerald, 05.06.2003, 22:21
  • euer Pro-USA/Mittlerer Osten Argument überzeugt mich auch auf englisch nicht -:) - kingsolomon, 06.06.2003, 09:59
    • Re: euer Pro-USA/Mittlerer Osten Argument überzeugt mich auch auf englisch nicht -:) - Emerald, 06.06.2003, 11:28