Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- und nochmal Faber, keine Ahnung ob es schon hier war. - nasdaq, 06.06.2003, 12:27
- Re: Danke fĂĽr's reinstellen! - kingsolomon, 06.06.2003, 12:47
und nochmal Faber, keine Ahnung ob es schon hier war.
-->Folgenden Extrakt habe ich aus einem anderen Internetboard gefischt:
Nach einer längeren Begründung, warum er US-Aktien für teuer hält und auf einen kurzfristigen Anstieg des Standard und Poors einen deutlichen Abstieg folgen sieht, schreibt Faber in seiner neuesten Analyse das Folgende:
Faber schreibt:
"Personally, I have a preference for the South East Asian markets. As I have explained repeatedly in the past, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea will increasingly be squeezed by China, where production costs are far lower. Conversely, South East Asia with its large natural resources is in many sectors complementary to China. As a result, I still like Indonesia where the economy is performing satisfactory and where we find numerous inexpensive companies. We still like P T Telekomunikasi (listed on the NYSE: TLK), and smaller companies such as Indofarma (INAF.IJ), Ciputra Surya (CTRS.IJ), Enseval (EPMT.IJ), Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ), Lautan Luas (LTLS.IJ) and London Sumatra (LSIP.IJ). I also feel hat the Indonesian banking sector has good recovery potential. What encourages me particularly about the outlook for Indonesian equities is that the net capital flows have recently turned positive. In fact, I would argue that SARS may have a beneficial impact on the flow of foreign direct investments (FDIs) into some countries, because multinationals have become aware of the danger of relying too heavily on investments and supplies from China. Therefore, some FDIs, which before the crisis would have been made in China, may now flow to some other Asian countries.
For an exposure to Thailand, we continue to recommend the purchase of Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BGH TB), Thai Union Frozen Products (TUF TB), Banpu (BANPU TB), Ocean Glass (OCG TB), and GFPT (GFPT TB). An overlooked and by foreigners shunned market is the Philippines. However, it has been my experience that the stock market frequently follows the Latin American markets and, therefore, given the strong performance in South America, a strong bounce could occur in Philippine stocks as well. There we still like Ayala Land (ALI PM), Jollibee (JFC PM) and ABS-CBN (ABS PM) In Hong Kong, we like Swire Pacific (19 HK), TVB (511 HK), Next Media (282 HK), Shangri-la Asia (69 HK) and Hong Kong & Shanghai Hotels (45 HK), and in Singapore, Singapore Telecommunications (ST SP), Singapore Airlines (SIAL SP), Singapore Technology Engineering (STE SP) and Capitaland (CAPL SP). I should like to stress that I have a high degree of confidence that diversified portfolio of Asian equities can be sold sometime within the next five years with a significant capital gain, while in the meantime one is paid for waiting because of the high dividend yield Asian equities provide (I own directly or indirectly some of the equities mentioned).
Incidentally, I also believe that we have just made a major low in the Japanese stock market. Blue chips and religious stocks like Sony have totally broken down, which is usually a sign that the bear market is approaching its end. I maintain my earlier recommendation that 2003 is the year when investors must go long Japanese equities and short Japanese bonds. It is only a matter of time before investors will pull out money from the ridiculously priced bond market (yielding less than 0.6%) and buy equities.
At the same time, I have less confidence that the purchase of the S&P 500 above 950 will produce satisfactory returns over the next five years. Still, I continue to like oil companies, whose earnings in the first quarter were superb, oil servicing companies and gold mining companies. Stocks like Royal Dutch (RD), Chevron Texaco (CVX), Exxon (XON), Woodside Petroleum (WPL AX), Schlumberger (SLB), Diamond Offshore (DO), Newmont Mining (NEM) and BHP Billiton (BHP) should be accumulated."
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