Re: Gold/Platin-Spread

verfasst von Tobias, 22.10.2000, 21:04

>Hi, irgendwo (leider nicht markiert, dummes Viech, ich) fand ich eine Frage nach dem Spread aller Spreads.

***Hi, ich war's. Vielen Dank für das Posting.

>Das stand vor längerem schon wie in Stein gemeißelt:
>
> TODAY'S COMMODITIES
> Platinum/gold spread should narrow
> August 7, 2000
> By Jim Baugh, Thedealingfloor.com
> The spread between gold and platinum has widened dramatically over the last
> several months to nearly $300 an ounce. Over the past 25 years the spread
> between the two metals has averaged around $95-$100 an ounce. Now, several
> market conditions are developing that should contribute to a near-term
> narrowing of the gap (ie, platinum prices declining and gold prices steady
> and/or rising).
> Platinum, benefiting from an explosive move in palladium, has risen
> recently to 12-year highs above $600 an ounce.

***Never fight the trend!?

Promised Russian
> shipments of the two metals were delayed several times this year,
> contributing to the price boost. But now reports of deliveries are coming
> forth. According to Reuters, Russia’s Norilsk Nickel plant “has been
> steadily exporting the two metals since March and has even made
> one-time deliveries to Japanese customers ahead of settling long term
> contracts". Both metals tumbled last week on the news.
> Norilsk chairman Yury Kotlyar said the company had been steadily
> exporting platinum group metals to the world markets since March,
> when the government approved the PGM exports quotas for 2000. He
> said the recent surge in platinum group metal prices was due to
> reluctance to sell the metals by the Central Bank of Russia and
> Gokhran, the state depository for precious metals.
> Russia produces 68% of the world’s supply of palladium, but only 25%
> of the world’s platinum. Since there are other, more reliable sources of
> platinum (South Africa primarily), we expect the “artificially” high
> platinum prices to fall more sharply than palladium, which remains
> susceptible to more Russian delays. Latest price action bears that out:
> on Friday apot platinum was down 7.2% and palladium was off 6.6%.
> General Motors (GM), the world's largest automaker, said on Thursday
> that it was investigating ways of reducing the palladium and platinum
> content of its car catalysts. The company will also be implementing
> heightened recycling efforts of used catalytic converters. Chairman Jack
> Smith said, “Both strategies are important to reduce the reliance on
> sources in Russia and South Africa.”

***Seit wann steht ihr denn auf Fundamentalanalyse??

> Gold is finding support in the $270-$275 an ounce area, an 11-week low.
> Since this level is also where the chart gap was filled in May, additional
> technical support is provided.

***Das ist zu hoffen. Für einen upmove spricht zudem eine seltene 5fache Bull-Divergenz im Gold-Chart (die haben explosiven Charakter) sowie das close über einem ID/NR4-Tag nach einem intraday false breakout.

> According to the most recent Commitment of Traders figures from the
> Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the commercial traders in
> Comex gold are net short by 18,857 contracts. If gold can break above
> overhead resistance at $295, a massive short-covering rally could ensue.
> Rallies of this type occurred in February, when gold jumped over $60 an
> ounce in less than two weeks, and last September when gold gained
> over $80 an ounce in less than three weeks.

***Wenn man darauf wetten möchte, empfehle ich einen 280er Dez. 00 Comex Gold Call. Derzeit zu haben für 1,5 USD. Steigt Gold"nur" auf 295, so ist die Option 15 USD im Geld (=1000% Gewinn). Reward-Risk Ratio wäre bei 50:50 Chance auf eine (kleine) Squeeze 10:1.

Gruß + happy squeezing,
Tobias

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gesamter Thread:

• Gold/Platin-Spread - Lullaby, 22.10.2000, 19:56
  • Re: Gold/Platin-Spread - Tobias, 22.10.2000, 21:04
    • Re: Gold/Platin-Spread - Danke, Tobias, muss Lullaby bis morgen auswendig lernen (owT) - dottore, 22.10.2000, 21:13