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Mix-Ansicht- Kann der Bull-Bear-Spread auf 100% wachsen?! Börsenbrief-Sentimentauf - kingsolomon, 11.06.2003, 18:43
- 1987? Da war doch was... - Reikianer, 11.06.2003, 20:30
Kann der Bull-Bear-Spread auf 100% wachsen?! Börsenbrief-Sentimentauf
-->Bären auf 16-Jahres Tief
Pessimism About U.S. Stocks Falls to 16-Year Low, Survey Says
June 11 (Bloomberg) --
The percentage of financial newsletter writers who were pessimistic about U.S. stocks sank to a 16-year- low last week, according to a survey by Investors Intelligence, amid a three-month rally in shares.
Bearish, or pessimistic, newsletter writers fell to 16.3 percent in the latest survey from 20.7 percent a week earlier, according to the New Rochelle, New York-based newsletter. The reading was the lowest since the week ended April 10, 1987, Investors Intelligence said.
Bullishness, or optimism, rose to 58.7 percent, the highest since February 2001, from 56.5. It remained above 50 percent for a sixth straight week. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has surged 23 percent since March 11.
''After the longest bear market since World War II, you have increased optimism and a burst of renewed interest in the stock market,'' said Vladimir de Vassal, director of quantitative research at Glenmede Trust Co., which oversees about $12 billion in Philadelphia.
Technical analysts, who predict stock moves based on price patterns and other statistics, see a low in bearishness or a peak in bullishness as a sign that stocks are due to fall because investors who view the market favorably may already have bought shares.
Bull-Bear Gap Widens
''Generally when people get positive and sure about what they are doing, you get to a point where you don't think you can lose and that gets to be the most risky time,'' said Michael Burke, editor of Investors Intelligence. He has been at the newsletter since 1963, when the survey began.
Still, de Vassal said the rally is so broad that the gains may persist.
About 81 percent of companies in the Russell 3000 Index are trading above their average closing price for the past 200 days, he said. That reading ''is at such a high level it indicates continued strength,'' he said.
His research shows that there have only been eight times since 1984 when more than 80 percent of companies have been above their 200-day moving average on the last day of the month. In every case, the S&P 500 had a positive return 12 months later and the average return was 16 percent, de Vassal said.
The percentage of financial advisers expecting a 10 percent drop in the U.S. stock market in the next 12 months -- Investors Intelligence's definition of ''a correction'' -- rose to 25.0 from 22.8. The combined percentage of advisers who were either bearish or expected a correction fell to 41.3 from 43.5.
The S&P 500 gained 2.5 percent last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 2.4 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2 percent.
The poll reflects sentiment expressed in newsletters from May 31 to June 6. Investors Intelligence compiles its survey using information from about 110 newsletters.
Last Updated: June 11, 2003 10:07 EDT
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