Altes Elliott-Wellen-Forum - Known Feelings?...

Known Feelings?...

verfasst von -- Elli --, 12.06.2003, 22:42

-->

What An Old Familiar Feeling Says About The
Future

6/12/2003 4:02:54 PM



By: Nico Isaac



In the June Elliott Wave Financial Forecast (EWFF)
editors Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall admit, “We’re having flashbacks…”

No, they're not seeing pink elephants or spiraling color
wheels. What they mean is that the current market environment eerily resembles
that of December 1999.

And, in comparing the EWFF from that year to the
latest issue, one can’t help but find the similarities striking:

-- The Rally Then And Now:

Dec. 1999 EWFF: The recent rise above the
August 24, 1999peak is one of the weakest overall runs to a new all time Dow
high in the last three decades.

June 2003 EWFF: The rise above the December 2
peak exhibits “lagging breath, waning volume, and a subtle loss of buying
intensity.”

Dec. 1999: The number of new highs outnumbered new
lows on just 4 days since the rally started on December 18th.

June 2003: Five out of the past seven weeks have
generated 100 or more"buying climaxes" -- When a stock market makes a
new 52 week high and then closes down the for the week.

-- Non-Confirmation (Disunity in various indexes) Then
And Now:

Dec. 1999 EWFF: A few blue chip stocks pushed
the Dow above its peak, BUT it’s the NASDAQ that rocketed to new highs. In
fact, the NASDAQ would surpass the Dow’s peaks and continue to push into
record territory even as the latter index lags.

June 2003 EWFF: The NASDAQ’s “outperformance
verses the Dow” is apparent since the October 2002 low.

Dec. 1999: “Hold the presses! This just in: small
caps are racing ahead of the big caps.”

June 2003: The S&P Small Cap index has rallied
above its December 2 high, AND there is a “headlong speculative rush to get
back what’s been lost in the bear market.” (Pension-obligation bonds,
commodities, and market funds, for example.)

-- Investor Sentiment Then And Now:

December 1999 EWFF: Displayed more bullish
enthusiasm than it did at the ultimate DJIA high. In February, the 52-week
moving average crossed 50% for the first time since 1987. A November Gallup
survey showed that 78% of Americans expect the stock market to stay the same or
go higher in the next three months.

June 2003 EWFF: The outlook of advisors,
individuals, and professional investors has simultaneously reached bullish
levels that meet or exceed those at virtually every countertrend peak since the
start of the bear market. The percentage of bulls is 70%, eclipsing the previous
1987 record and newsletter writers are more one-sidedly bullish than in 11 years.

-- The Stock Mania Then And Now:

December 1999 EWFF: Broadest public stock
participation perhaps in history. Making a million in stocks is the common goal
of investors… The longer-term Fools-for-stock-psychology has dwarfed
the highs of 1968 and 1929 by huge margin. Stock market capitalization as a
percentage of GDP is 144% vs. 81.4% in 1929.

June 2003 EWFF: Individual investors are
smitten with the stock bug again. The American Association of Individual
Investors survey hit 5-week average of 54.6% on May 15. There’s a “Whiff of
across-the-board-optimism” with the re-emergence of this type of sentiment:
“Stocks are so cheap now that they are bargains… investors can’t afford
not to be in stocks.”

-- O.K., for the final comparison, the FORECAST Then
And Now:

December 1999 EWFF: A near-term top is
imminent. A likely target for the rally is 11,889. AND a little over a
month after the letter published, the Dow peaked at 11,750 with the NASDAQ
following suit in due course. Since then, every major U.S. stock index has seen
losses of 25-70%.

So, the important question is -- What does this old
familiar feeling say about where the market is headed now?



http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?c=mr&a=571&t=pm

Thread gesperrt

gesamter Thread:

Known Feelings?... - -- Elli --, 12.06.2003, 22:42