Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Pamela & Mary Anne............................ - Emerald, 13.06.2003, 15:19
- Re: Pamela & Mary Anne...sind ST ein guter Kontra Indikator. - CRASH_GURU, 13.06.2003, 21:40
Re: Pamela & Mary Anne...sind ST ein guter Kontra Indikator.
-->> Gold's A rise is over and the B decline is now underway as long as gold stays below $362. It could now decline to $345 and to possibly even the $330 level, and the weakness could last until July or August. The end of the B decline will provide the next best buying area. Keep in mind that B declines tend to be moderate and the recent week's gold share strength may be reflecting this. Gold shares are now showing the best strength compared to gold since last July. HUI and XAU rose to 4 month highs on Thursday and they're very strong above 140 and 74, respectively. They have room to rise further and while it's unusual to move differently to gold, if they stay above these levels they could rise to test the January highs. Remember, gold and gold shares are unlikely to move in opposite directions for long. Perhaps gold shares are being temporarily influenced by the rising stock market. We'll soon see. Keep your positions. If you sold the weaker ones, wait to buy the stronger ones. By the way, the fact that gold's A rise ended on the shorter side of the average A rise isn't a concern because gold's performance was good and it was normal. Crude oil shot up; it's strong above $30. Platinum is strong above $640 but silver remains weak below $4.60.
> U.S. bond prices closed at another 40+ year high today. Bonds are extremely strong with the yields below 4.40% on the 30 year and 3.40% on the 10 year. The bull market is strong, solid and poised to rise further this year, but bonds are overbought short-term and could take a breather. T-Bills also fell to new lows today, which tend to lead an interest rate cut. Keep your bond position as well as TLT.
> The U.S. stock market continues to advance in its now 13 week rise. The Dow Jones Industrials is now clearly above its August high, closing at an almost one year high today. The Nasdaq, Utilities, and S&P 500 also closed at new highs. Clearly this has been the best rise since the post 9-11 rise, but it's now at an intermediate overbought level, which means the rise may not last too much longer. Keep an eye on the Transportations; it's very strong above 2450, but it must now close above 2556 to keep the momentum going. The Dow still looks like it's on its way to 9504, which is the halfway level of the bear market and it's very strong above 8900. Nasdaq is very strong above 1590. If you have DIA, QQQ or SOXX, keep a 10% trailing stop and sell if it closes below, or sell if the Dow closes below 8900. Now's the time to watch them closely.
> The world equity markets continue to rise with the U.S. market, with some like Mexico at an over one year high. They will continue to rise as long as Wall Street does.
> The U.S. dollar index is barely stabilizing. It closed at another low on Thursday and it's still below its 5 week moving average at 93.90. This shows weakness. But the dollar is oversold short-term and if it's going to have a bounce up, now's the time. If the index closes above 93.90, it could rise to possibly 97, and still be weak. The dollar index would be very weak at a new low below 92.60 (June) or 93 (Sept). The euro, Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars and to a lesser extent the Swiss franc are holding near the highs. The ECB lowered rates last week yet the euro remains very strong above 1.1670. The euro posted a high on May 29 at 1.19, so keep an eye on these two levels as a break either way will determine the next short-term trend direction. The euro could decline to 1.12 and still be strong. The others are very strong above:.7300 Canadian dollar,.6540 Australian dollar and.5740 NZ dollar. If the SF stays below.7660, it could go to.7450 and still be strong. The British pound is at a new bull market high and it's very strong above 1.64. Keep your positions.
>Warm wishes and until next week, Pamela and Mary Anne Aden
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