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Mix-Ansicht- Nochmal, weil's viele übersahen: Mythos Gold-Short-Position (bitte um Kommentar) - yatri, 16.06.2003, 07:37
- Re: Mythos Gold-Short-Position? Mythos Fed!! - Wal Buchenberg, 16.06.2003, 07:57
- Re: Nochmal, weil's viele übersahen: Mythos Gold-Short-Position (bitte um Kommentar) - CRASH_GURU, 16.06.2003, 08:15
- Neue Analyse von Reg Howe zu den Goldshorts - R.Deutsch, 16.06.2003, 11:07
Re: Mythos Gold-Short-Position? Mythos Fed!!
-->Hallo,
ich lösche von dem zitierten Artikel, wo ich weitgehend zustimme -
Gold's Short Position: Part Myth, Part Yesterday's News
By: Christopher Temple, The National Investor
Im ersten Teil beschreibt Temple, was die Fed GEZWUNGEN war zu tun:
Had not the New York Fed (via J.P. Morgan) intervened to cap gold's rise, it would indeed have been"off to the races." In my view - as I wrote at the time and have reviewed several times since - the world's financial markets were within a few days of having their wheels come off.
>We're nearly four years later in time. And now - even during gold's two significant (but temporary) spikes higher during the last few months - we have seen no evidence of such a mad scramble as occurred in 1999. The question is - why not? (...)
Auch im folgenden beschreibt er, was die Fed GEZWUNGEN war zu tun:
"I believe that the Fed - and perhaps other central banks - has been feverishly 'liquefying' the gold market so as to keep the recent advance a much more orderly one than was 1999's...The motive, of course, is to get as many of these institutions (those still heavily short) as possible out of harm's way in the event that gold rises far more, and in such a way that the bankers are unable to do anything more than slow it down.
Er kommt richtig zu dem Ergebnis, dass die Bankers nicht mehr tun KONNTEN und nicht mehr tun KÃ-NNEN:
I am increasingly persuaded that the low lease rates are an indication that the bankers realize, in the end, that they cannot fight the markets where gold is concerned, any more than currency intervention works if the markets are of a mind to do something different..."
So weit so gut. Dann plötzlich schwenkt er um 180 Grad um und behauptet:
Among other things, I also wrote in that same report that the Fed now desired a rising gold price.
Was die Fed"desired" wäre nur interessant, wenn die Fed auch die MITTEL hätte, das zu realisieren, was sie wünscht. Den ganzen Text vorher bewies er jedoch, dass das unmöglich ist.
I believe it continues to want this; (...) Whatever the case, the most politically powerful and influential economists are telling us that a rising gold price is"proof" that the Fed's efforts at reflating both Wall Street and the economy are starting to bear fruit. And Alan Greenspan is not about to take that ammunition out of the pundits' hands when all of them need any and every reason, both real and imagined, to convince the public that all will be well.
Jetzt ist nur noch davon die Rede, was die Fed"want". Damit verlässt der Autor endgültig seine Marktanalyse und flüchtet sich in spekulative Anbetung der Macht und Weisheit der Fed.
Folks, there's NO WAY the Fed or other central banks would follow their present course without first having largely defused the short position in the yellow metal. I believe they've done exactly that over the last year or so. A liquid gold market and time have helped;
So wird der erzwungene Rückzug aus der Goldshortposition zu einer gloreichen Siegerstrategie der Fed umgedichtet. Wie auch immer die Marktbewegungen sich entwickeln: Die Fed hat es so gewollt! Bullshit!
Gruß Wal Buchenberg
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