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verfasst von nasdaq, 25.06.2003, 00:43

-->leider wurde doch nichts aus der Übertragung. Wir müssen uns also auf die Informationen und streams auf der Website verlassen, dennoch nicht minder uninteressant:

U.S. stocks in our opinion remain more than fully valued using dividend yield, Tobin’s Q, and price to book standards of more rational periods. European markets where dividend yields nearly match 10-year bond rates (U.K., France) are far more appealing as are many of those in Asia including that of Japan!


In any case, let me attempt to outline as simply as possible the global economy’s primary problem: It suffers from a lack of aggregate demand and too much supply. Because of globalization and Chinese overproduction; because of high debt levels and its suffocating impact on business investment and personal spending; because of a creeping, almost imperceptible demographic muting of consumption in aging societies such as Japan, Germany, and Italy; because of market bubble popping and the negatives of receding wealth; because of the dragnet of post 9/11 and now SARS, because of all of that and more we live in a world where we have too much relative to what we can afford to, or want to spend.

So government is fighting back, and before we morph from Jim Morrison to Peggy Lee, we must critically ask - what kind of fire will this be a few years hence? Standard cyclical economists and firestarters answer that it will be a pretty hot one - Greenspan certainly talks that way as he points to a New Age Economic revival. We are less optimistic for all of the reasons cited that have provided and will maintain wet logs. We see 2-3% inflation in the U.S. and 2-3% max real growth over the next 3-5 years; 1-2% inflation in Euroland and 1-2% max real growth, - barely above the line in Japan. Not much of a fire. Some emerging market economies may do relatively better as lower real interest rates and more aggressive reforms lead to increased reserves and a greater sense of stability. Nonetheless, it will be a Peggy Lee world, but the mellowness of the inflation and real growth will mask the potential volatility engendered by a levered world dependent upon finance for it’s warmth. A system built on the basis of a free flow of capital can be severely damaged by volatility within the system itself. Peggy Lee never lived in Butler Creek - (PIMCO’s phrase in the mid-90s for a placid economy and financial markets). Our perceived economy may at the average appear to be an eddy, but there are rapids on either side. This will be a global economy fraught with risk. Unregulated hedge funds, collateralized debt obligations, and poorly structured derivatives of all kinds that redistribute risk but do not eliminate it portend the likelihood of another LTCM debacle at some point. Greenspan is clearly off base in his support of derivatives and their medicinal “hedging” qualities. Leverage cannot ultimately be hedged in a finance dominated global economy when interest rates rise. There will be a piper to pay when the firestarters run out of fuel.

So where should you put, how might we invest your money in this global economy with insufficient heat, but more than enough volatility? With government yields at near record lows, we remain convinced that Treasury bond’s salad days are over - no more capital gains - but that a bear market may be years away. As critical a question to ask in addition to “Is that all there is - to a fire?” is, “How long does the Fed (and the ECB) stay low and what is a sustainable real interest rate in this new environment?” Answer that and you have a big piece of the future’s investment puzzle. Our current supposition is that they stay low for several years at least and that a real interest rate of 1% after that, instead of the historic 2-3% level, may become the standard. A debt laden, levered global economy cannot stand much in the way of interest rate hikes. The past few years’ reductions have barely kept us above water - mortgage refis and all. Just think of what happens to housing and housing equalization when the cycle reverses. Economy GONZO.

Bond investors should not be shocked by this 1% real rate assumption. The chart below points out that it was only during the post-1980 period that short-term real interest rates were abnormally high on a global basis. Periods of disinflation (and certainly deflation) tend to produce high real rates because central banks are squeezing inflation out of the system. All other periods including reflationary ones have much lower real rates, averaging - believe it or not - a negative.7% globally for the first 80 years of the 20th century.


<ul> ~ http://www.pimco.com/index.htm</ul>

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