Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Der Kontra-Indikator? - Emerald, 26.06.2003, 17:39
Der Kontra-Indikator?
--> The Federal Reserve lowered rates by a ¼% to a 45-year low today. Since this was less than expected, it pushed stocks and bonds down.
It looks like the stock market's 15 week rise is over. If the Dow Jones Industrials now stay below 9050, it'll be the first time the Dow is below its 5 week moving average since March. This is important because the rise is clearly overbought and due for a breather. The Transportations are now vulnerable to a further decline below 2450 and if Nasdaq closes and stays below 1600, it'll be a further warning. If you have DIA, QQQ or SOXX, raise your trailing stop to 4% and be quick to sell if it's broken.
Bond prices fell sharply today as the excesses continue to be worked off. Bonds are declining from an overbought level and are poised to decline further. If the 30 year yield now stays above 4.33%, it could rise to 4.65% while bond prices decline. Keep your bond position, but like we said last week, short-term traders may want to sell.
Gold's been declining for five weeks now in a B decline and it could stay under pressure for another month or so. Gold shares are feeling the heat as HUI & XAU resisted near the January highs. Gold shares are now coming down with gold and will most likely stay under pressure as well. Gold's B decline is underway below $362. If it closes below $345, it could weaken further, to possibly $330. HUI & XAU are now vulnerable below 148 and 78, respectively; they could decline to 135 and 72, and still be strong. Silver is under pressure below $4.60; it could decline to its next support at $4.42. Platinum is strong above $660 as is crude oil above $29.
Since gold shares are now coming down with gold, keep the gold shares you have and wait for further weakness to buy more.
Today's lower interest rate hurt the Dollar. But it's been rising in a rebound rise since last week and the dollar index is poised to rise further if it now stays above 93.50. The dollar index could rise to 97 or even 98 but it would still be weak in the big picture. The euro and Swiss franc are clearly in downward corrections below 117.50 and.7680, respectively. The euro could decline to 112-113 and still be strong. The Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars remain strong near the highs above.6610,.5750 and.7350, respectively. The British pound is strong above 1.66. Keep your positions and buy new positions on weakness.
Japan's Nikkei is resisting at the 9000 level as is Hong Kong at 10,000. If Wall Street now heads lower, the world markets will too.
Warm wishes and until next week, Pamela and Mary Anne Aden
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