US-Konsument gnadenlos gegen sich selbst: Juni Einzelhandel weit üb. Erwartungen

verfasst von kingsolomon, 15.07.2003, 15:32

-->Schuldenmachen stets im Dienste des Vaterlands...

(Two comments- the number was expected by a number of analysts because of deep discounting by the retailers. Secondly the price of gas in my area jumped 10 cents after the July 4th holiday ended. $1.34 to $1.44)



U.S. June Retail Sales Rise 0.5%; Ex-Autos Increase 0.7%

July 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in June, paced by purchases of building materials, furniture and apparel, a government report showed, bolstering expectations the economy will accelerate in coming months.

Sales rose 0.5 percent during the month to $310.4 billion, after no change in May, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Excluding automobiles, sales increased 0.7 percent last month following a 0.1 percent gain.

A 23 percent rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since a March low, discounted merchandise and low borrowing costs are fueling spending. Tax rebate checks to be mailed out weeks from now and smaller income tax deductions may give households the wherewithal to keep buying and help propel the economy, economists said.

''The better tone in spending is for real,'' said Robert Mellman, an economist at J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. in New York, before the report. It ''gives us a lot more confidence'' the pace of growth will pick up in the next six months, he said.

Economists had forecast a 0.4 percent rise in retail sales last month following a 0.1 percent gain initially reported for May, according to the median of 66 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Sales excluding automobiles were expected to rise 0.3 percent.

Consumer spending, which accounts for almost three-quarters of the economy, probably grew at a 3 percent annual pace in the quarter that ended last month compared with a 2 percent rise in the first quarter, according to Mellman.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan may tell lawmakers later today that the economy is poised to strengthen, economists said. He may also use the testimony to signal that the central bank will keep its benchmark interest rate at a 45-year low of 1 percent to ensure the pick up is well-rooted.

Harry Potter

Sales of building supplies rose 2.6 percent in June and home furnishings purchases increased 0.5 percent as record low mortgage rates propelled sales on new homes to a record pace in May.

Clothing store sales increased 1.3 percent in June after a 1.6 percent rise. Purchases at sporting goods, hobby, book and music outlets jumped 3 percent, the biggest increase since February 2001. The rise may have reflected the release of the fifth installment in the series of books written by J.K. Rowling which chronicle the adventurous of a boy wizard named Harry Potter, economists said.

Barnes & Noble Inc., the world's largest book retailer, last week said sales at stores open at least a year jumped 11 percent last month compared with June of last year, bolstered by demand for ''Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix.'' Excluding that book, sales would have been up 4.9 percent.

Department Stores

Sales at general merchandise stores, which include department stores, rose 0.3 percent last month after rising 0.7 percent in May. Department stores sold 0.2 percent more merchandise.

Unseasonably wet and cool weather in the eastern part of the country may have tempered sales at some department stores, economists said.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Kohl's Corp. and Federated Department Stores Inc. last week reported disappointing sales in June, due in part to the weather. Sales at Wal-Mart's U.S. stores open at least a year increased 2.7 percent from a year earlier, at the low end of the range predicted by the world's largest retailer. Kohl's cut its earnings forecast after a 2.4 percent drop in sales and purchases at Federated, owner of Macy's and Bloomingdale's, dropped 2 percent, more than analysts forecast.

The average national temperature was 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than normal last month, making it the sixth coolest June in 109 years of record keeping, according to the National Climactic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina. An average of 3.5 inches of rain fell, making it the seventh wettest June ever.

July Sales

A return to more seasonable readings this month has brought out the shoppers. Bentonville, Arkansas-based Wal-Mart said today July sales are rising at the high end of its 2 percent to 4 percent forecast, led by purchases of swimwear and groceries.

''Weather-related weakness is almost always made up in later months,'' said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York, before the report.

Sales at automobile dealerships and parts stores fell 0.1 percent in June after falling 0.2 percent a month earlier.

Automakers boosted incentives in June by $191, or 5.8 percent from May, to $3,499 per vehicle, according to CNW Marketing Research, an industry group that has been tracking prices since 1989. Spending rose 1.4 percent to $3,969 at General Motors Corp. and 2.4 percent to $3,711 at Ford Motor Co.

Inflation Adjustment

Because of discounting, ''the inflation-adjusted spending numbers could in fact be higher,'' said Jan Hatzius, an economist at Goldman, Sachs & Co. in New York, before the report.

Separate industry statistics released earlier this month showed total sales rose to 16.4 million cars and light trucks at an annual rate in June compared with 16.1 million in May.

Looking at the economic signals, ''we see some reason for hope'' in the last half of the year, said Gary Dilts, senior vice president of sales for DaimlerChrysler's Chrysler unit in a telephone conference with investors this month. ''We are seeing some improvement.''

The government's $330 billion, 10-year tax-cut package went into effect this month and the Standard & Poor's 500 stock market index showed a 14.9 percent gain in the second quarter, the biggest three-month increase since the fourth quarter of 1998. In addition, Fed policy markers cut their target rate last month to 1 percent, the lowest since 1958, in a bid to help stoke demand.

The unemployment rate rose to 6.4 percent last month, the highest since July 1994.

Gasoline

Today's report showed sales at electronics and appliance stores fell 0.1 percent, while sales at food and beverage stores rose 0.5 percent. Sales at restaurants and drinking places fell 0.2 percent after rising 1.5 percent a month earlier.

Receipts at service stations rose 1.3 percent last month following a 4.2 percent drop in May. The average price for a gallon of gasoline rose as high as $1.56 a gallon in mid June compared with $1.53 a gallon at the end of May.

Excluding gasoline and auto purchases, retail sales increased 0.7 percent in June after a 0.6 percent May rise.

The economy is expected to expand at a 3.5 percent annual pace in the third quarter and 3.7 percent in the fourth, according to the consensus of 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News from June 25 to July 2. That compares with a 2 percent growth pace forecast for the second quarter.

Last Updated: July 15, 2003 08:30 EDT



 

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• US-Konsument gnadenlos gegen sich selbst: Juni Einzelhandel weit üb. Erwartungen - kingsolomon, 15.07.2003, 15:32