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Mix-Ansicht- Vielleicht liegen die Aden's beim Dollar diesmal etwas daneben - Emerald, 17.07.2003, 07:58
Vielleicht liegen die Aden's beim Dollar diesmal etwas daneben
-->hier ist ihre Wochen-Meinung:
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Bond prices fell yesterday following Greenspan's comments that the economy is poised to accelerate. But he also said interest rates will stay low as long as needed. The 30 year yield shot up, as it approached its major downtrend, and its five week rise is now the most overbought it's ever been. It's clearly at an extreme on a short-term basis. This means the major bond price trend is still up and further weakness will likely be limited. Bonds, however, may be forming a top as the yields are closer now to their major trends than they've been in a year. Watch the major trend. If the yields close and stay above 4.98% on the 30 year and 4.10% on the 10 year, the major bond price trend will be turning down and we'd then recommend selling your bonds. But if the 30 year yield closes below 4.70%, the five week bond decline will be over and we'd then recommend buying bonds. Overall, it feels like bonds still have life in the bull market.
The stock market's 18 week rise is chugging. Tomorrow will be a month since the Dow Industrials reached its last peak and the market is overbought. The Dow must close above its June 17 high at 9323 for the 18week rise to continue. But if the Dow now stays below its lower peak posted last week at 9223 and closes below 8990, the rise will be over. The market is mixed. Transportations and Nasdaq are strong at or near the highs, but the Utilities and Amex closed at an eight and six week low today, respectively. Nasdaq is strong above 1675 but if it closes below this level and Utilities now stay below 236, it'll be a further sign that the rise is over. Overall it still looks like the rise is near an end. If you have DIA, QQQ or SOXX, watch them closely and sell if the 4% trailing stop is broken.
Gold's eight week B decline is underway as long as gold stays below $350. Yesterday gold closed below $344 and took gold shares with it. This means gold could decline to possibly the $332-$335 level while gold shares decline in a normal downward correction before the B decline is over. HUI and XAU closed at six week lows today. Both are strong above 140 and 72, respectively, but if broken on a close, HUI could decline to 130 and still be firm and bullish. Silver fell this week but it's strong above $4.60. Platinum shot up to test its March highs yesterday. It's very strong above $670. Copper is holding near the February highs. It's solid above $.75 just as oil is solid above $29.25. Buy gold shares gradually this month and next to take advantage of weakness.
U.S. dollar's five week rise is gaining steam as it rose above its 15-week moving average. The Dollar index is strong short-term above 96 and it could rise to the 98-100 level before the rise is over. The major trend is down below 103.50. All the currencies are declining in a downward correction. The euro is weak short-term below 1.14 and it's now poised to decline further to possibly the 1.10 level. The Aussie, Kiwi and Canadian dollars are at or near their 15-week moving averages. Keep an eye on these levels at.6450,.5750 and.7200, respectively. They are still strong in the big picture above these levels but a close below them means a steeper correction will begin. Buy new positions on weakness.
Many of the world equity markets have performed well but with the U.S. market chugging, they will too.
Warm wishes and until next week,
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden
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