acht Monate und das Baby war gebacken

verfasst von Cosa, 17.07.2003, 20:47

-->Hi,

das NBER hatte ja gestern getagt um über das Ende der US-amerikanischen Rezession mit Beginn im März des selben Jahres.

Kurzum ab dem November 2001 wird eine Erholung der Wirtschaft gesehen, diese laufe zwar noch nicht mit der 'normalen' Kapazität, aber formal ist damit das Rezessionsende deklariert. Nur acht Monate.

Hier der Originaltext:


CAMBRIDGE July 17 -- The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in November 2001. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in March 2001 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 8 months, which is slightly less than average for recessions since World War II.

In determining that a trough occurred in November 2001, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle. Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.

The committee waited to make the determination of the trough date until it was confident that any future downturn in the economy would be considered a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in March 2001. The committee noted that the most recent data indicate that the broadest measure of economic activity-gross domestic product in constant dollars-has risen 4.0 percent from its low in the third quarter of 2001, and is 3.3 percent above its pre-recession peak in the fourth quarter of 2000. Two other indicators of economic activity that play an important role in the committee's decisions-personal income excluding transfer payments and the volume of sales of the manufacturing and wholesale-retail sectors, both in real terms-have also surpassed their pre-recession peaks. Two other indicators the committee focuses on-payroll employment and industrial production-remain well below their pre-recession peaks. Indeed, the most recent data indicate that employment has not begun to recover at all. The committee determined, however, that the fact that the broadest, most comprehensive measure of economic activity is well above its pre-recession levels implied that any subsequent downturn in the economy would be a separate recession.

Identifying the date of the trough involved weighing the evidence provided by the behavior of various indicators of economic activity. The estimates of real GDP issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce are only available quarterly. Further, macroeconomic indicators are subject to substantial revisions and measurement error. For these reasons, the committee refers to a variety of monthly indicators to choose the exact months of peaks and troughs. It places particular emphasis on real personal income excluding transfers and on employment, since both measures reflect activity across the entire economy. The committee places less emphasis on the industrial production and real sales series, which mainly cover the manufacturing and goods-producing sectors of the economy. The committee also looks at estimates of monthly real GDP prepared by Macroeconomic Advisers. There is no fixed rule about what weights are assigned to the various indicators, or about what other measures contribute information to the process.

The behavior of these series strongly suggests that the trough occurred in late 2001. All the major indicators of economic activity were generally flat or declining through September 2001. Real GDP then grew at a substantial rate from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2001 and has continued growing since then. The committee concluded that this strong growth in the most comprehensive measure of economic activity essentially ruled out the possibility that the trough occurred later than the fourth quarter. The committee also viewed the behavior of quarterly real GDP as strong evidence against the possibility that the trough occurred in December 2001, since there could be a December trough only if economic activity was declining over most of the fourth quarter. Reinforcing the conclusion that the trough did not occur in December, two of the monthly indicators-personal income excluding transfers and the estimates of monthly real GDP-grew very rapidly in December, and the sales series grew as well. These considerations indicate that the trough occurred in September, October, or November.

Monthly real GDP and sales reached their lows in September. The committee's conclusion that the trough did not occur in September was based on two considerations. First, personal income, employment, and industrial production were all substantially lower in October and November than in September. Second, the NBER's practice has been to identify the highs and lows of economic activity that are due to the operation of normal economic forces; temporary movements in activity resulting from unusual forces, such as strikes, have been discounted in identifying turning points. The committee concluded that some of the depressed level of economic activity in September 2001 was the result of the exceptional events of September 11, and thus should not be considered in identifying the trough.

From October to November, industrial production and sales fell sharply, employment fell moderately, personal income rose very slightly, and monthly real GDP rose moderately. Based on this information, the committee concluded that the economy reached a trough in November.

The NBER's practice has been that if economic activity is roughly flat at the end of a recession or expansion, the turning point is placed at the end of the flat period. Although the committee concluded that it was not necessary to invoke this rule to determine that the trough occurred in November rather than September or October, the rule strengthened the committee's confidence in its determination.

The NBER also maintains a quarterly chronology of the U.S. business cycle. The committee determined that the fourth quarter of 2001 was a quarterly trough in economic activity.


Da bin ich jetzt schon auf die Kommentare von S. Roach und P. Kasriel gespannt.

Hab wenig Zeit auf die Zahlen im einzelnen einzugehen, aber der Arbeitsmarkt sieht wirklich nicht besonders aus.
Im Chart hier die neugeschaffenen Stellen bzw. der Stellenabbau seit 1948; sieht das hier nach Erholung aus?

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Gruss
Cosa

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gesamter Thread:

• acht Monate und das Baby war gebacken - Cosa, 17.07.2003, 20:47
  • Re: acht Monate und das Baby war gebacken - Emerald, 17.07.2003, 20:59
    • m. Vermutung: bloss keine"auffälligen" Rezessionen - kingsolomon, 17.07.2003, 22:42