Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Pro-gnosen - Pro-Rand - Pro-fit - Emerald, 23.07.2003, 09:25
- Re: Pro-gnosen - Pro-Rand - Pro-fit - die Banker in CAN müssens ja wissen... (owT) - CRASH_GURU, 23.07.2003, 10:08
Pro-gnosen - Pro-Rand - Pro-fit
-->da muss ich wieder mal nichts mehr zufügen. Und die Leser(Innen) wird's freuen:
Revised Rand Forecast-Strengthening to R8.50/US$ by mid-
2004- Quarterly Preview
Event
We have revised our short-medium term Rand/US$ exchange rate with
gradual Rand strengthening toward R8.50/US$ by mid 2004 and R8.60/US$
by 2004 year-end. Our South African Gold stock valuations have changed
accordingly.
Investment Opinion
* Technically, USD/ZAR should remain biased to the downside in the
near term, albeit limited by profit taking, bouts of USD strength and
importer flows. The major level on the downside is at 7.32 with the
technical target thereafter at 7.25/20. We do not believe USD/ZAR will
re-test its April 30 low of 7.05 any time soon.
* We forecast USD/ZAR at 8.25 by year-end. Our medium-term
outlook is for gradual USD/ZAR strengthening towards 8.50 by mid-
2004, on diminished carry and struggling exports, and moving higher
towards 8.60/70 by year-end 2004.
* We are expecting an even tougher quarter than the March reporting
period, when the Rand and a lower gold price have squeezed margins
further. We expect the Rand, will be the most significant cause for low
earnings for the South African gold miners, which averaged R7,72 in
the June quarter, significantly stronger than the R8,37 average that it
showed in the three months to March. The dollar gold price fell 1.3%
during the quarter, and was down 9% in Rand terms.
* We believe Harmony and Gold Fields will be hit most by the strong
Rand amongst the Tier 1 producers, but the company's June quarter
results are widely expected in the market.
* We expect the prices to trade in a $330 to $360 range into Q2/03 and
Q3/03. We expect the gold price to strengthen in Q4/03 as global
attention intensifies on a stagnating global economic situation.
* We expect share prices to be event-driven over the next three months,
with a return to gold price leverage stocks in Q4/03. Our most leverage
stocks to a rising gold price are Harmony and Avgold, which we expect
to Outperform our peer group, under higher gold prices.
* Our top investment ideas are Harmony Gold Mining and Avgold Ltd.
have a nice day und enjoy the (your) life!
Emerald.
Quelle: RBC Dominion Securities Inc., Montreal/Toronto, grösstes kan. Broker
und Bank-Unternehmen.
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