Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Dr. Richebächer spricht Klar-Text: - Emerald, 30.07.2003, 07:25
- Hoppla! da kam noch ein Fremd-Artikel dazu (Goldminen in SA) auch interessant! - Emerald, 30.07.2003, 07:51
Hoppla! da kam noch ein Fremd-Artikel dazu (Goldminen in SA) auch interessant!
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>A friend of mine who is a subscriber to your service sent me the following excerpt from a recent market commentary of yours:
>"I'm not a fan of the South African government. These are good
>mines, but the S. African mines are heading for a possible strike, and the S.
>African government wants to be a"partner" in the gold mines. I have a
>position in Harmony and Durban, but I'm not excited about these positions. I'm
>thinking about switching these stocks to Newmont. But I haven't moved yet."
>As a South Africa 'veteran' (i've lived 10 years in SA and spent several of those trading on the JSE), i feel compelled to briefly comment and perhaps help to clear up the issue a bit. i'm not a big fan of the SA government either - but it is the cream of the crop in Africa. its economic policies are by and large market-orientated, and its central bank is far more conservative than Greenspan's"print as much as you can" outfit. it is true that recent legislation aimed at addressing perceived economic wrongs dating from the apartheid era amounts to a bit of social engineering that SA would probably be better off without. but the government does NOT want to be a 'partner' in the mines as you put it. it merely mandated a racial quota w.r.t. to mine ownership, and gave the mines ample time to implement it. this sounds threatening, but in reality it isn't. in fact, the major producers have all already implemented the requisite transactions, and it is important to note that those t!
>Transactions were all done at fair market prices. essentially, black-owned mining consortia have taken stakes in the major producers, or alternatively entered into joint ventures with them, but not on conditions that were any different from what comparable free market transactions sans compulsory legislation would have looked like. in other words, shareholders were not cheated, which is quite different from the way things are done in e.g. Zimbabwe and many other African nations. the big rally in the SA Rand over the past year speaks for itself: foreign investors have confidence in South Africa and its economic policies.
>of course the strong Rand also hurts the earnings of SA based miners in the short term. but the fact remains that these mines harbor some of the biggest gold deposits in the world, and due to the marginal nature of many of their assets they have extraordinary leverage to the gold price. just to give you an example as to why serious gold investors simply can't overlook the South Africans: one of GFI's flagship mines, Kloof, has 20 million ounces of gold 'below works', i.e. right underneath the existing infrastructure of the mine. these ounces are not mentioned anywhere as resources or reserves, but they are there. i can name 10 mid tier NorthAm producers that don't have as much gold in the ground TOGETHER as Kloof has 'below works'.
>as an aside, there are few things more overstated in the course of investment history than 'political risk' in South Africa. the fact is, SA's mines have paid dividends to their shareholders without interruption since the 1880's, even through the world wars, and all sorts of political upheavals, external as well as internal. the last miners strike was in the 1980's, almost 20 years ago. the recent strike threat once again proved to be nothing but brinkmanship by the NUM, a negotiation ploy basically (just as Durban Deep ALWAYS threatens to close down its mines when wage negotiations are underway).
>in my opinion, although the SA gold producers are currently out of favor with the investing public, there can be no doubt that they will regain their leadership position if/when gold continues to rally (as both you and i expect it to). one should look at the current bargain basement prices as an opportunity rather than something to be feared. leadership in bull markets changes frequently, and my hunch is that the South African stocks will come into focus again once the coming quarterly earnings reports (which will be bad due to the strong Rand, but still better than those of 90% of their North American competitors aside from perhaps NEM) are out of the way. currently these stocks are discounting the end of the world, which is basically silly. but that's how markets often are...they exaggerate both on the upside and on the downside, and these inefficiencies are what allows us judicious investors to make money after all.
>unquote:
>Goldfields und Harmony (Durban) leiden gerade noch etwas unter den Lohnanpassungen, aber die jetzigen Kurse sind - a real bargain - meint
>Emerald.
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